While the global tourism industry expects to lose some 200 million jobs to the pandemic and associated lockdowns, the government said it was ‘mindful’ that tourism was ‘one of the pillars’ of growth in South Africa and would work with the sector on a recovery plan.
Tourism Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane acknowledged that the pandemic had devastated South Africa’s tourism industry, but said in a briefing yesterday she was committed to working on a recovery plan with the sector.
‘Our intention is to start, as soon as possible, to work with the sector to implement the recovery plan. We are mindful that this is critical, as tourism is one of the pillars of South Africa’s growth.’
A key initial objective was to ensure the sector did not become a vector of infections with the easing of restrictions under level 2, from Monday.
On the economic side, Kubayi-Ngubane said she was ‘highly encouraged’ by the interest shown by local and international investors.
‘This gives hope that the supply side of our sector will not only recover, but has the potential to surpass where we were prior to the pandemic.’
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) said yesterday the pandemic could cost nearly 200 million tourism jobs globally.
International travel has been largely halted by restrictions on mobility. CNN reported that tour operator TUI said travel was down 81% in Europe between June and the beginning of August compared to the same period in 2019.
The WTTC said that even with the easing of lockdowns, the ‘confusing patchwork of bans, quarantines and uncoordinated international testing and tracing measures’ had curbed demand.
It has called on governments to coordinate measures to enable the resumption of at least some international travel.
The organization said economic models showed that in addition to the loss of 197 million jobs, up to R95 trillion could be erased from the global GDP. These forecasts are much worse than the WTTC’s outlook in April when it predicted the loss of 100 million jobs and a R46 trillion global GDP reduction.
As the global death toll rose to at least 781 194 and the number of infections increased to 22.1 million (with 13.8 million recoveries), the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned that the world was ‘nowhere close to the levels of immunity required to stop this disease transmitting’.
The executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, Mike Ryan, said: ‘I think what we can say with certainty is, right now, as a planet, as a global population, we are nowhere close to the levels of immunity required to stop this disease transmitting.
‘And we need to focus on what we can actually do now to suppress transmission and not live in the hope of herd immunity being our salvation. Right now, that is not a solution.’
Herd immunity refers to the condition in which the virus cannot spread widely for the absence of sufficient numbers of susceptible people. Varying estimates have been suggested – between 50% and 80% – to indicate when enough of the population have antibodies against Covid-19, either through infection or through vaccination, for herd immunity to be achieved.
Senior WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove said studies estimated that less than 10% of the population had evidence of antibodies against the virus, though some countries or regions which experienced high rates of transmission could see higher numbers of up to 20% or 25%.
She said: ‘That means that a large proportion of the population remains susceptible.’
Positive cases grew in South Africa yesterday by 3 916 to a cumulative total of 596 060 (with 491 441 recoveries). Deaths rose by 159 to 12 423.
The highest tally of cases is in Gauteng (202 011), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (107 271), the Western Cape (103 210) and the Eastern Cape (84 362).