President-elect Joe Biden has promised big changes, and to set the United States (US) on a new course. The US will be far more involved with global institutions and closer to traditional allies. Much will change under Biden even if his Democrats lack a majority in the Senate.
But Biden will maintain the Trump stance on China and might even be tougher as the power rivalry between the two countries intensifies. That could force countries like South Africa, on the sidelines of this rivalry, to choose between the two sides.
By executive order Biden will put the US back into the Paris Climate Agreement, halt the US withdrawal from the World Health Organisation, and overall, will be far more involved in global affairs. His administration will conform to the liberal internationalist tradition of post-war US diplomacy that has the ideal of making a better world while pushing US interests.
Biden victory welcomed
The government and much of South African public opinion got what they wanted with a Biden victory, but it may not turn out not to be such an easy ride with the new administration. The world has changed over the past few years and the key focus of American foreign policy will be its power rivalry with China. In the years ahead, even Democrats could be careful about handing out economic benefits to countries that are not on side.
Even under a Biden administration, the US may better reward countries on their stance toward China. Aligned with the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, and with close relations with Cuba, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, South Africa could find itself off side with Washington. An understanding of the apartheid past and the Mandela legacy may no longer allow South Africa to hold such credit with the US in the years ahead.
One idea from the Biden team is to form a league of democracies that would certainly exclude China and Russia. If such a body was formed South Africa would be invited to join, but some of Pretoria’s friends would certainly be excluded. Such a body would help isolate China, Russia, and Iran, as well as Cuba, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.
Trump foreign policy legacy
As much as the Democrats despise Trump, he will have handed them a formidable hand on aspects of foreign policy. This is particularly so in the case of trade relations with China and the Iran nuclear agreement, should Biden make moves to possibly re-enter the deal. On his foreign policy and domestic agenda Biden will be highly constrained, which in turn could give him enhanced negotiating power and toughen the stance on China.
Run-off elections for two seats in the state of Georgia in January will decide whether or not the Democrats control the Senate. If the Republicans control the Senate, they will be able to check Biden’s every move should they so wish. There is next to no chance that he will be able to implement his very ambitious proposals, including one to spend $2 trillion in federal funds on climate change-related investments.
Weak mandate
Biden is also constrained by his weak mandate. There is a strong case to be made that large numbers voted for him because they wanted Trump out, rather than Biden as President. Trump was able to get millions to the polls, both those in support of himself as well those who strongly wanted him out. The Trump movement survives and the Democrats could be stymied if they push too liberal an agenda. Biden will have to play on very safe ground. That means being particularly careful on foreign policy and showing that he can be tough.
There is now a strong consensus among most Democrats and Republicans about the need for a tough posture on China. Since China’s economic reforms in the late 1970s that gave the initial spurt to its boom, the US has given Beijing the benefit of the doubt, believing that ultimately its fast growth would yield political liberalisation. The view was that Chinese economic growth should be encouraged by bringing China into the world system, and that a more compliant and liberal partner would emerge. But this has not happened and today there is intensifying great power rivalry and deep concerns that the rise of China will not be peaceful.
New Cold War
The rise of China as a global power, its crackdown on dissent, the close monitoring of its population, and its expanding military presence in the South China Sea create deep worries across the US political spectrum about Beijing’s world role. Trump’s increased tariffs on Chinese imports, his accusations of currency manipulation, and the increasingly tough measures in the “Digital Great Game” are all part of a long-term rivalry that will certainly not abate with the Biden inauguration.
The Digital Great Game has seen Washington bar chip sales to Huawei and exert heavy pressure on the United Kingdom and other close allies to deny the company 5G network contracts. China has been intent on building its own tech industry and parallel internet, protected by the “Great Firewall” and the “Golden Shield Project” to ensure cyber sovereignty. The US dominates the digital technology space with 15 of the world’s top 50 tech companies US-based. However China is close behind and has Washington and its allies worried.
Even with a Biden administration, South Africa may find it costly to sit on the sidelines and refrain from choosing sides. Huawei has a sizable presence in SA, which will not go unnoticed in Washington. For years the ANC-governed South Africa has often voted against US interests at the United Nations and kept the US at arm’s length. The two certainly co-operate, but the relationship has for some time been increasingly distant. The US helps fund HIV/AIDS programmes in this country and we benefit from preferential access to the US market under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
If South Africa is not on side in the Great Game against China, will the US continue to give us economic benefits on the same scale?
AGOA expires in five years’ time, which will be either after Biden leaves office or into his second term. But even a Biden administration might restrict South Africa’s access to AGOA. There has long been a discussion about whether South Africa, as a middle-income country, should derive the sort of trade benefits meant for less-developed countries. And as with much else, there is the possibility that continued AGOA access could be made contingent on South Africa falling more on side with the US in the new cold war.
South Africa may benefit from a rise in fruit sales to China as Beijing seeks to diversify its trade away from the US. Choosing sides is always hard.
Trump disparaged Africa, but Biden might give it new and unwanted attention, albeit as part of a greater game against China. South Africa had best play its cards with care.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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