A 2024 Venezuelan presidential election is a chance to recover democracy.
In a recent telephone interview from Caracas, presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado acknowledged multiple failed efforts to restore democracy peacefully in her country. But this time, she says, things are different.
One reason is that the Venezuelan government has morphed into an internationally recognised organised-crime syndicate. Even left-wing leaders like Chilean President Gabriel Boric have distanced themselves from it.
‘Maduro has turned into a toxic figure’, Machado says, pointing to an ongoing investigation of allegations of crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court.
The opposition’s primary is set for 22 October. This is another reason for hope. Thirteen candidates are vying for a single nomination that major opposition parties and others have pledged to support. The privately-run primary circumvents Maduro’s national electoral council.
Machado insists that critical support among groups that Maduro once counted on has plummeted. ‘The grip that the regime has had over a large segment of the population has been lost’. This includes elements inside ‘the armed forces, the police, the paramilitary groups known as “collectivos”’.
A June survey by the Venezuelan polling company Delphos found that 85% of Venezuelans believe a change in government is necessary. The poll had Machado finishing first; Maduro considers her a threat. In June, he disqualified her from running in 2024.The ban has boosted her popularity.
The outward migration is intentional on the part of the regime, Machado says. ‘They want people to give up’. But ‘when people see that things that look hard and improbable are ethically inescapable, that’s how change is made’.