Venezuela is mobilising its military in apparent anticipation of a US strike on the country, as the US builds up forces in the Caribbean. These include the arrival earlier this week of the aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford, the largest warship in the US arsenal.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, has signed a new National Defence Framework, which aims to integrate military and civilian defence capabilities. The armed forces have been undertaking drills to signal a willingness to resist an attack, although this has been accompanied by vocal protestations that Venezuela did not wish for a conflict.
The country’s Defence Minister, Vladimir Padrino said on Tuesday: “The aggression will be responded to with national unity. We are ready here, we don’t want war.”
Venezuela fields a military of some 123 000 personnel, backed up by what Maduro has claimed to be eight million civilians – many currently undergoing training – organised into militias. Venezuela’s military is, however, armed with aging equipment, mostly of Russian origin. Its soldier are poorly paid, and its primary role in recent years has been domestic repression, with the military leadership backing Maduro’s government. Experts regard it as doubtful that it could put up a serious conventional challenge to the US.
Dr Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow at the NATO Defence College, remarked during an interview on Al Jazeera that part of the military mobilisation was aimed at intimidating the domestic opposition.
However, Venezuelan government documents seen by Reuters, the government’s strategy is to mount an asymmetrical resistance. One leg of this is to be a guerilla war – “prolonged resistance” – for which equipment is being positioned. This is to be carried out by elements of the military, along with smaller numbers of militia and supporters of the ruling party.
The other leg is what has been termed “anarchization”, which would see intelligence operatives and armed supporters of the regime sparking widespread disorder, undermining the capacity of an occupying force to exert control. This would be driven by between 5 000 and 7 000 people.
This strategy has been alluded to by Maduro, who stated on television that its 5 000 Russian-made portable surface-to-air missiles had been deployed.: “to the last mountain, the last town, and the last city in the territory.”
The US has been ambivalent in its intentions. President Donald Trump has made combatting drug trafficking a centrepiece of his presidency. This has included targeting boats suspected of being involved in the trade. Officially, the build-up is for training purposes and to support counter-narcotic efforts, though suspicions are that this is the prelude to deposing the Venezuelan government.
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