New poll shows growth for EFF, slight declines for DA and ANC

Staff Writer | Apr 25, 2019
A new poll by Markdata suggests some interesting possibilities in next month’s election.

Market research company Markdata says its poll of 3 500 people shows the African National Congress (ANC) will receive 59% of the vote, the Democratic Alliance (DA) just over 21%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) around 12%. 

Among registered voters, the ANC’s share ticked up slightly to 60.6%, with the DA dropping to 20.3%, and the EFF declining to 11.5%.

The results broadly align with the trends reflected in polling data from the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), here – that the ANC is likely to decline, the DA likely to remain static or also show a decline, and the EFF more or less doubling its support. 

However, Markdata’s polling data for the provinces has been heavily criticised by political and election analysts. For example, the Markdata poll put DA support in the Western Cape at 42%, with the ANC at 39%, and the EFF at 11%. Election analyst Dawie Scholtz described this as ‘insanely, ridiculously unlikely’. He argued that other polls, and by-election results – while reflecting a slight DA decline – by no means indicated a collapse in DA support. In 2014, the DA won almost 60% of the vote in the province. 

Another election analyst, Wayne Sussman, pointed out that available data from by-elections showed this was an unlikely result. Sussman described the Markdata poll’s finding that EFF support in the Western Cape was equivalent to its 11% tally in Limpopo as ‘implausible’.

The IRR will be publishing the results of its latest poll a week before the 8 May ballot. 


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