Global political risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft has singled out South Africa along with India and Brazil as the G-20 countries likely to suffer the ‘harshest repercussions’ from the pandemic.
The three countries are at the very bottom of the consultancy’s Recovery Capacity Index, devised to measure the capacity of G-20 states to recover from the pandemic and associated lockdowns.
The report by analysts David Wille and Joshua Cartwright found G-20 countries in Western Europe and East Asia had the capacity to recover more rapidly than emerging market members.
The ‘least resilient’ states would face far worse consequences.
India, South Africa, and Brazil represented 20% of the world’s population, 10% of the world’s GDP, 3.7% of total trade, and 3.2% of foreign direct investment flows.
The report said a ‘drawn-out recovery’ for emerging markets ‘will have severe repercussions for the investment community, consumer markets and multinationals’.
Smaller G20 members would see their recoveries hampered by weak institutions and corrupt governance, with disruptions from civil unrest posing the biggest obstacle to their recovery.
The consultancy placed India, Brazil and South Africa in the ‘high-risk’ category for corruption.
‘Corrupt, ineffective and unstable governments will be limited in their ability to direct funding to where it is most needed, failing to revive the economy even after the immediate crisis is dealt with,’ the report warned.
It added: ‘Even if they manage to avoid the worst, our Recovery Capacity Index suggests that India, South Africa and Brazil still have a long road ahead.’
The International Monetary Fund has said the world is in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression, warning that it could take two years for economic output to return to pre-pandemic levels, according to a BBC report. The report also noted that the United Nations predicted that up to 265 million people could face starvation by the end of the year.
Positive cases grew yesterday by 3 707 to a cumulative total of 607 045 (with 504 127 recoveries). Deaths rose by 144 to 12 987.
The highest tally of cases is in Gauteng (205 246), followed by KwaZulu-Natal (109 332), the Western Cape (104 285) and the Eastern Cape (85 039).
Johns Hopkins University said at least 800 000 people had died around the world, and cumulative cases had risen to almost 23 million.
The highest number of deaths have been recorded in the United States (175 000) and Brazil (113 000).
The BBC reported that the Czech Republic had become the latest European country to announce the highest number of cases since the pandemic began. The country recorded 506 new infections yesterday.
Poland and Slovakia also announced their own record figures on Friday, with 903 and 123 cases respectively, while Spain, Italy and France had seen sharp increases in recent days.