

Frans Cronje
Frans Cronje was educated at St John’s College in Houghton and holds a PHD in scenario planning. He has been at the IRR for 15 years and established its Centre for Risk Analysis as a scenario focused research unit servicing the strategic intelligence needs of corporate and government clients. It uses deep-dive data analysis and first hand political and policy information to advise groups with interests in South Africa on the likely long term economic, social, and political evolution of the country. He has advised several hundred South African corporations, foreign investors, and policy shapers. He is the author of two books on South Africa’s future and scenarios from those books have been presented to an estimated 30 000 people. He writes a weekly column for Rapport and teaches scenario based strategy at the business school of the University of the Free State.
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Articles By This Author

A brilliant flash, then oblivion: is this the ANC’s supernova moment?
- By Frans Cronje
- . Dec 27, 2021
This article was first published on 6 June 2021. This was one of our 20 most read article of 2021. My colleague Anthea Jeffery has

The BLM threat to both God and man
- By Frans Cronje
- . Dec 25, 2021
The Daily Friend is rerunning some of our most-read articles over the festive season. The instruction by South Africa’s cricket authorities that national team players must kneel

South Africa’s quite mad COP26 deal
- By Frans Cronje
- . Nov 10, 2021
Writing in the Financial Times last week, Cyril Ramaphosa argued that “(humanity) faces an unprecedented climate crisis, with the welfare of our planet and its

An opportunity like this may not come again
- By Frans Cronje
- . Nov 9, 2021
Sitting with me on a plane to Cape Town last week, the new IRR CEO, John Endres, came up with the story about the buffalo

The BLM threat to both God and man
- By Frans Cronje
- . Oct 28, 2021
The instruction by South Africa’s cricket authorities that national team players must kneel in homage to the Black Lives Matter movement presents a useful opportunity

SA in crisis – Part-5: What you should do
- By Frans Cronje
- . Jul 25, 2021
This is the final edition of our five-part series setting out why South Africa blew up a week ago, arguing that the blow-up was not

SA in crisis – Part four: What will happen next?
- By Frans Cronje
- . Jul 24, 2021
This is the fourth of a five-part series setting out why South Africa blew up a week ago, arguing that the blow-up was not due

SA in crisis – Part three: What should government be doing to head off the risk of a series of riots sweeping the country?
- By Frans Cronje
- . Jul 23, 2021
This is the third of a five-part series setting out why South Africa blew up a week ago, arguing that the blow-up was not due

SA in crisis – Part 2: South Africa’s blow-up was not a coup attempt or an attempted insurrection
- By Frans Cronje
- . Jul 22, 2021
This is the second of a five-part series setting out why South Africa blew up a week ago, arguing that the blow-up was not due

SA in crisis – Part 1: Why did South Africa blow up?
- By Frans Cronje
- . Jul 21, 2021
This is the first of a five-part series setting out why South Africa blew up a week ago, arguing that the blow-up was not due