Frans Cronje lays out scenarios for how South Africa may look after the 2024 election and Nicholas Lorimer and Terence Corrigan comment on how likely they believe each scenario to be. This discussion is a follow-up from last week’s episode “Is the ANC on life support? What comes next?” which you can find here.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. You guys certainly know how to get someone invested for the next show! 🙂

    You do realise that in 5/6 scenarios the ANC is still in power… 🙂

    I am also happy you mentioned unstable coalitions and don’t even forget a minority government. The conclusion after such shambles would hopefully be your six scenario – but who knows what emerges after such instability and likely service delivery protest, rampant crime and worsening socio-economic conditions. I think more thought is needed beyond how this impacts on the relatively secure upper middle class (fragmentation scenario) but on poor majority. On that note – I am happy with the pushback on (5) for those reasons. The libertarian utopia doesn’t have any really historical precedent and do we really want to look like a Sierra Leone / some sci-fi dystopia? Is that a satisfactory liberal outcome – not in my books!

    Again here I think you need to step again a bit away from your tendency to think in ideological categories (private sector as good, free market can provide everything, individual agency etc) and think a bit like say a populist, securocrat, criminal, ethnic nationalist, radical leftist or just the perceived losers in such a scenario – which are all going to be there and not disappear in a “fractured scenario”. If you don’t employ libertarians you certainly struggle to see how the state and some authority (Arendtian – meaning not power / force but ) is needed even for liberty. Not even Nozick thought anarchy leads to utopia and even his minimalist state would struggle to take hold in these circumstance…

    I look forward to the six scenario. A pity so little of our liberalism is aimed at this scenario and attempts to build it are derided by our classic liberals – never a good word for MM or HM or parties working together. Often because it is not principled or pure enough.

    I wonder if our liberals really have the stomach and the ability for the six scenario? What do you think? – I think it will be a lot more messy and require a lot more compromise than people are prepared to make in actually trying to build common building glue and new institutions, integrated communities and some civic republican spirit – if you look at our current politics and past…surveys don’t tell the story and don’t do the work.

    However, this is the key to South Africa becoming a success and building not a perfect liberal utopia but something closer to a working modus vivendi in which people can find sufficient liberty…(As an aside our liberal project will be better served if our liberals drop the bumper sticker free market / libertarian individualism and read more conservatives, ancients, classics and post-liberal ideas that capture that liberty is not just some legal constitution or rational set of tenants to be instrumentalised)

  2. Very interesting scenario planning.
    There is one change in the current dispensation which were not contemplated. The possible rise of the independent candidate. It could be the source of the changes that leads to scenario 4/5, can’t exactly remember.
    This candidate live in his constituency and are there for his/her people. The changes should be seen in this year’s local election and hopefully the legislation will be in place by 2024 as ordered by the courts.

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