Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, has expressed his scepticism about whether there will be public support for another referendum on independence, even if the Scottish National Party (SNP) wins a majority in next week’s elections for the Scottish Parliament.
In 2014 Scotland went to the polls about whether to break away from the United Kingdom and become an independent country. Some 55% of voters opted to continue with the status quo. However, the subsequent departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) has meant that the independence question is not settled. Most Scottish voters opted to remain in the EU in the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum. The SNP, a party which explicitly wants Scottish independence, is still the most popular party in the country, by some way.
Said Blair, who was Prime Minister from 1997 to 2007: ‘I’m not sure that even if the SNP win a majority in the Scottish Parliament that it necessarily means that people want to go through the disruption of an independence campaign – I would frankly doubt that.’
Under Blair’s premiership the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999. A Welsh Assembly was established that same year.
Blair, speaking in an interview with ITV, said he believed that the move to devolution had saved the British Union. Said Blair: ‘Where I think we were wrong was in believing that devolution would end the argument of independence – it hasn’t ended it, but it is still a very substantial part of the bulwark against it. I do think one of the weaknesses in the way we approached devolution was not to build real cultural ties and emphasise the enormous things that the different countries in the United Kingdom have in common.’
Scots go to the polls next week to elect a new Parliament, as do the Welsh and Londoners (who will each elect a new assembly). Voters also go to the polls to elect new authorities in 145 local English councils.
The SNP is ahead in opinion polls for elections to the Scottish Parliament, but is projected to fall short of a 50% majority. The SNP has also faced a number of scandals lately, which has seen former party leader, Alex Salmond, join a rival pro-independence party, the Alba Party.