People living in Scotland, Wales, and London all have the opportunity to vote today, with elections being held for the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd (the Welsh Assembly), and the London Assembly. Londoners will also be casting a vote to decide whether to give Mayor Sadiq Khan a second term.
In Scotland the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to emerge as easily the single biggest party. The only question is whether it will manage to secure a majority in the 129-member legislature or whether it will miss out.
Opinion polls initially had the SNP just short of a majority, but a number of party scandals have seen support for the party drop in recent weeks.
The Conservatives are likely to be the second biggest party in Holyrood (as the Scottish Parliament is also called) followed by Labour and the Green Party. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to secure a handful of seats.
Another SNP win could see the possibility of another independence referendum in Scotland. In 2014 the Scots voted to stay in the United Kingdom, but recent events, such as Brexit, have seen independence advocates argue that another referendum should be held. An SNP win could well see intense lobbying for another referendum.
In Wales stakes are not as high, with the pro-independence party there, Plaid Cymru, expected to win about 20% of the vote. Labour is likely to emerge as the single biggest party, with the support of about 35% of the Welsh. The Tories are projected to have the support of about a quarter of the electorate. A single-issue party which is campaigning for the abolition of the Welsh Assembly (helpfully called the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party) could win about five percent of the vote.
In London Sadiq Khan is campaigning for a second term, which he is likely to win. This election, which was postponed for a year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, will also see votes cast for members of the London Assembly.
The London mayoral election is run on a two-round system. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the first round, then the top two candidates go through to a second round. Khan is projected to win about 40% of the vote on the first round, and is likely to be joined in the second round by Shaun Bailey of the Conservatives.
British politics watchers will also have an eye on a by-election in Hartlepool in the north of England. The constituency was formed in the 1970s and has returned Labour candidates to Westminster in each election. However, the Conservative Party candidate is leading there, and if they were to win this would provide evidence of further crumbling of the ‘Red Wall,’ constituencies in the north of England which have been solidly behind Labour. However, in recent years, and particularly in the last British election in 2019, there has been a pronounced swing away from Labour to the Tories in the north of England. A Labour loss in Hartlepool would be a blow to the party, which last won a British general election in 2005.