An article in the Chinese publication Naval and Merchant Ships has published an article setting out a scenario for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This coincided with the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China.
China has become increasingly bellicose in recent years towards its democratic island neighbour, which it claims as its own territory.
The plan would proceed in three phases. Firstly, a ballistic missile assault would attempt to destroy or disable key assets, such as airports, anti-missile sites and command installations. Secondly, cruise missiles would be launched from land sites, ships and submarines. They would be directed at army bases, munitions stores and key infrastructure. Drones would be sent to assess damage. Thirdly, artillery would prepare the way for a landing by Chinese forces.
The report did not factor in the intervention of any outside forces, such as the United States or Japan.
In other developments, it has emerged that Japan has asked the US for details of its war planning around Taiwan. While the US has not done so – wishing to engage with Japan on the issue in a phased manner – Japan’s request is a clear indication that it expects to be involved in a conflict with China over Taiwan.
Japanese support has always been integral to US prospects of assisting Taiwan, through the use of its facilities in Japan. These revelations suggest that Japan might be willing actively to assist militarily in the event of a war.
Japan appears to be viewing its own security as intrinsically linked to that of Taiwan. Although lacking formal ties, the two countries have close cultural and political links. ‘We are family with Taiwan,’ said defence minister Yasuhide Nakayama recently.
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