The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shifted the post-Cold War order and is laying the ground for a more dangerous world.
In this sorting out of world power realities, Russia’s decline as a world power has accelerated. This gives opportunities to China and the West. With Russia increasingly dependent on China as a market for its natural resources, Beijing’s power has been elevated. And into the gap left by Russia in Central Europe and Asia, Turkey will become increasingly assertive.
The West is united for now and more powerful, but may yet split apart over the longer-term response to Russia and China. And with these new more intense power rivalries, probing and testing by rivals, as well as proxy wars, may increase.
South Africa has neglected world power realities in effectively siding with Russia over Ukraine. That has brought closure to the remnants of good diplomatic access and influence across the world we had as part of the legacy of the Mandela years. During those years we had a degree of moral authority which we could play to our advantage. Our United Nations voting record has ended that.
Initially, the Department of Foreign Affairs called for a Russian troop withdrawal, but then we abstained on a UN General Assembly Resolution condemning the invasion and demanding a withdrawal. We could have easily followed most African countries, including the most important like Nigeria and Kenya, in voting for the resolution. But President Cyril Ramaphosa said South Africa had to be neutral to play the role of mediator.
Then to tie ourselves further in knots, we abstained last week on a resolution on the humanitarian consequences of the Russian invasion, and proposed our own, which failed to mention Russia. All this has resulted in a protest by some foreign diplomats to the Department of Foreign Affairs and threats to cut off development funding. All this has left us with much reduced power of persuasion in our region or the world.
We will not side with them
Russia has little or nothing to give us in thanks for the vote, and the West now knows we will not side with them on issues of vital importance. Moreover, we are certainly not neutral and we have no chance of taking on a role as mediator. That is the role of the bigger and closer powers to the conflict like China and Turkey. So we have played our cards poorly at the start of this new world order.
The Russian economy will be immensely weakened by western sanctions, the war will be expensive and recovery difficult. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has overstretched its military capabilities. That could mean a reduced presence in Syria and new threats to the Assad regime in Damascus. And the invasion also shows that Russian President, Vladimir Putin has made a rash decision, most likely with inadequate consultation among the leadership and the military.
The aims of the war also seem obscure, showing it up all the more as a rash decision. In talks this week the Russians dropped their demand for “de-nazification”and that Ukraine not join the European Union. The war may have been really a gratuitous show of force by a declining power.
While the Chinese have a tight alliance with Russia, they are probably unnerved by such rash decisions.
China is interested in Russia’s oil, gas, and natural resources, and is part of an anti-Western front. Beijing might like to see the West unbalanced and nervous over the invasion, but there have also been costs to China. The invasion has set back the recovery from lockdown and caused global instability, which might spread. China’s foremost global effort at power projection, the Belt and Road initiative through which Beijing aims to build trade and investment ties with much of the globe, has been upset by the invasion. Ukraine was an important component of the Belt and Road initiative.
Remain power rivals
Russia and China are not natural allies and remain power rivals. Therefore, China might be pleased that Russia is being weakened by its invasion and that the West is nervous and pre-occupied on this and not, for the moment, its rivalry with Beijing.
To show it has sway over Russia, and that it can help a country that is part of the Belt and Road initiative, China will at some point have to put pressure on Russia to withdraw.
Alexander Stubbs, the former Prime Minister of Finland, says China is more interested in building relations with the West than deepening its alliance with Russia. After all, the West is key to its growing prosperity, while Russia cannot possibly play such a role as it is a small economy, although a military and natural resource giant.
The invasion has been a game changer for the West. Unity has held so far. Sweden and Finland may join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, defence spending by members will vastly increase and there has been a big troop build-up in Europe
But there are factors that could soften the Western response. Europe is already facing vastly increased energy bills, and diversifying the supply of oil and gas from elsewhere will take some time. The US will probably want Putin to go before it lifts sanctions, but the Europeans may want an earlier deal.
The West must now realise there is no leeway in dealing with Putin. It was the weak Western response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the declaration of the “People’s Republics” bordering Russia that paved the way for Putin to try and take a larger chunk of Ukraine.
Proxy war
One problem is that the West does not want to be seen as being in a proxy war against Russia. It does not want to put boots on the ground and is loath to see this escalate into a wider or nuclear confrontation. That is why the conflict is so dangerous and it is almost inevitable that Russia and China will increasingly seek to test and challenge the West’s response across the globe.
Through its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West is aiming to show China that the invasion cannot act as its blueprint for a takeover of Taiwan. So far it may have given China pause, as Ukraine with Western support has hit hard at the Russians and might yet bog them down. China cannot afford such a humiliation.
Turkey’s position as both a mediator and a rising regional power has been enhanced. While a member of NATO, Turkey often acts independently. The latest round of Ukrainian-Russian peace talks was hosted in Istanbul. Turkey is in a position to grow its role as a regional power in the gap that Russia will increasingly leave. While acting as mediator Turkey has also been supplying Ukraine with its drones, the Bayraktar Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, that has inflicted immense damage on Russian forces.
All of this puts South Africa in a precarious position. As there is no real neutral position, it has chosen sides, which means that its voice may not be heard loudly and clearly on African issues.
[Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/earth-globalisation-network-3866609/]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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