“Hope, it is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective, a lot of hope is dangerous.” Suzanne Collins.
Whilst a handful of bitter-enders desperately try to tease life out of the dying embers of Ramaphoria, the madding crowd has moved on. South Africa is once again alive with possibility. In 2024, the ANC Goliath will finally be felled, and hope can once more spring eternal.
Enter national coalition politics. What could possibly go wrong?
Unfortunately, the answer is rather a lot, but South Africa is trying not to dwell too long on this rather sticky point. Those foolhardy enough to enter the scenario-planning arena, seemingly only do so to articulate what they aren’t willing to accept. Establishing a cohesive coalition government built on anything other than a shared desire to dethrone the ANC will be all but impossible. Once the ANC falls, the erstwhile allies will in most cases have absolutely nothing left in common and will promptly turn on each other with a vengeance.
Let me spell out the maths. Three political parties dominate the South African political landscape. In 2019, the ANC, DA, and EFF collectively secured 89.1% of all votes nationally. In 2021, they secured 77.6%.
DA/ANC or ANC/EFF?
Mathematically, there are only four possible permutations of a South African coalition government. DA/ANC, DA/EFF, ANC/EFF, or the ANC plus minnows. The DA and EFF are radically opposed to each other in virtually every policy area, and their previous foray into coalition government was a disaster. It will not be repeated. Any ANC/minnow coalition will not constitute a genuine change of government, just an extension of the ANC’s tenure of corruption and incompetence. Holomisa, De Lille, and McKenzie have all proven themselves perfectly willing to do the ANC’s bidding.
This reduces the realistic possibilities of radical political change to just two; DA/ANC or ANC/EFF.
As usual, and to her eternal credit, Helen Zille is three steps ahead of the peanut gallery. I am certain she holds no torch for a DA/ANC coalition, but she knows precisely what an ANC/EFF coalition would mean for South Africa – its eternal demise. When a video clip of her explaining the unavoidable reality of a DA/ANC coalition to her DA colleagues began to do the rounds before the recent local government elections, outrage quickly followed.
The response was immediate. John Steenhuisen categorically stated that the DA would not be entering coalitions with either the ANC or the EFF, and that the DA would instead remain in opposition where they could not establish a coalition government without them. This stilled the baying crowd without anyone having to be unnecessarily distracted by the reality that whilst this may be possible at municipal level, it most certainly is not at a national level.
South Africa will not survive an ANC/EFF coalition
Fast-forward six months and Helen Zille is once again advocating for a DA/ANC coalition. With no election hanging in the balance, voters can once again be trusted with the truth.
South Africa as a constitutional democracy will simply not survive five years of an ANC/EFF coalition government. Even if free and fair elections were then still to be possible in 2029, and that would be a big if indeed, there would be nothing left to save.
Whether a DA/ANC coalition is even a possibility is another question. There may be some within the ANC who might contemplate such an eventuality, but there are others for whom hell must first freeze over. If the DA can form a coalition with the ‘good ANC’ (surely an oxymoron?) they will be the junior partner and unlikely able to deliver the sweeping changes necessary to rescue South Africa from the abyss.
In short, South Africa isn’t gloriously ascending into a new era of coalition politics, it is descending into it, without a cohesive plan, and with virtually no prospect of stable and functional government being the result. Regardless, national coalition politics are now virtually inevitable.
ANC already discussing dissolving the Constitution
There is nothing wrong with clinging tightly to the hope that out of this chaos order can somehow emerge. It would just be foolhardy in the extreme to go ‘all in’ on coalition government as the only strategy by which to save South Africa.
What then is the contingency plan for an ANC/EFF coalition government?
The ANC are already openly discussing the dissolution of our constitutional democracy, so that the few remaining checks and balances which prevent the full lunacy of their ideological horror-show being unleashed on South Africa can be finally dispensed with. The EFF will be goading them to go faster and further. The prodigal son will have returned triumphant and unrepentant.
It would be an unforgivable dereliction of duty for the main opposition party not to have prepared for this all too real eventuality.
Those opposed to this dystopian future must be given an exit strategy.
Subsidiarity will not save South Africa from RET
The DA has already done the maths. “Where people don’t vote ANC, they don’t deserve to live under a failed state”, (Zille). “People should have a right to a referendum to make choices going forward”, (Steenhuisen).
Thus far, their actions have been limited to the concept of subsidiarity, where they have had modest success. It is a matter of statistical record that where they have governed at both municipal and provincial level, they have significantly outperformed the national average.
There is undoubtedly further constitutional scope for more radical action. The Constitution offers far more opportunities for both the provincial and municipal spheres of government to act unilaterally than are currently being exercised, especially if those spheres decide to claim the grey areas and leave the ConCourt to push back where necessary.
But subsidiarity is not going to save South Africa from an ANC/EFF coalition government intent on ‘Radical Economic Transformatioǹ (RET).
Developing a Plan B
The answer lies in pre-activating the necessary provisions of the Constitution now, which would establish the legal and constitutional framework for full autonomy for territories which, in the event of a Zimbabwe style meltdown, have democratically rejected the destructive forces of the then national government.
This would most obviously apply to the Western Cape, but depending upon election results, could include Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, parts of the Northern and Eastern Capes, and perhaps other regions (or communities) too.
The DA has already announced its Electoral Commission Amendment Act which would give effect to the constitutional right of provincial premiers to call referendums. It is just dragging its heels on tabling it in parliament and must do so as a matter of urgency. A referendum can establish a mandate for any number of unilateral actions at a provincial level, especially during a constitutional crisis.
It must now also look to creatively exploit the many other constitutional opportunities which exist, such as section 235, the section on self-determination. Whilst many will argue that the wording of s235 is too narrow to apply to either provinces or municipalities, other provisions within the Constitution potentially widen its scope. The Constitution requires, for example, that International Law be considered when interpreting it and South Africa has ratified several international treaties which establish the right to self-determination in a far broader context.
Create exit mechanisms now
Although theoretically supportive of a federal South Africa, the DA has thus far proven remarkably reluctant to use its provincial legislative power in the Western Cape to advance provincial autonomy. This stems from a nervousness about the reception they might receive from the 70% of their voters who reside in the rest of South Africa.
I believe this is a fundamental mistake, and one which may cost South Africa and the DA dearly. Not only is this the antithesis of federalism, depriving Western Cape voters of their democratic will to pander to the perceived political sensitivities of those living elsewhere, but those voters share the DA’s ideology. Establishing an ideological heartland to which like-minded people can affiliate helps rather than harms them. The middle-class are already migrating to the Western Cape in their droves.
Now is the time to be bold. Establish the legal basis for provinces and other territories to make fundamental decisions about their own future. Create an exit mechanism whilst the constitutional order still prevails. Provide them the option of complete autonomy, including sovereignty, should they so wish.
If by some miracle of fate coalition government saves South Africa from the brink, then fantastic. Let’s just make sure that ‘Plan B’ is already in place, and that naïve and misplaced hope doesn’t become the final nail in South Africa’s coffin.
[Photo: poster from News24]
The views of the writer are not necessarily those of the Daily Friend or the IRR.