President Cyril Ramaphosa has cut short an overseas trip to return to deal with the Eskom crisis. How this will help solve the crisis, which has been almost 30 years in the making, is unclear.
According to Business Day, the Presidential spokesperson said Ramaphosa wants to understand why so many Eskom units tripped and what could be done ‘at once’ to resolve load-shedding. In 2019, the President rushed back from Egypt to try and solve a ‘load shedding’ crisis, but we are in a worse spot now.
The country is now experiencing Stage 6 of the Eskom eight stages of power cuts. This year will go down as the worst we have experienced in 15 years of frequent power cuts. Stage 6 means there are about six hours of power cuts a day, although some customers now swear that they are experiencing more than that. Eskom told us over the weekend that we should be prepared for a prolonged period of Stage 6 cuts. And it has admitted that things could get worse. At Stage 8 we will experience power cuts for 50 percent of the time – that is twelve hours on and twelve hours off. Beyond that, it all becomes even more dire.
Management of power supply crises in South Africa is like trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted. It has been a problem in the making from the earliest days of ANC rule. None can be solved ‘at once’ with the wave of a wand by the same party that created them.
Eskom is merely a reflection of so much that has gone wrong with ANC rule.That includes the political interference in management decisions and the wrecking of state-owned enterprises. The state itself and the public enterprises have been made into agencies which are part of the ruling party’s patronage network.
That is a reason Eskom employs about 42 000 people, about 200 percent more than the around 14 000 that the World Bank says should be employed by a utility of its size. Then there is black economic empowerment on contracts to bolster the ANC’s power of patronage. That pushes up contract costs, as a certain share of contracts must go to empowerment firms, who are often merely middlemen who buy from the local agent or the original equipment manufacturer. And politically motivated employment and contracting decisions often mean sub-standard work on maintenance.
Fully aware
Good management might become possible if the ANC let Eskom management get on with business, but dropping empowerment and cutting the work force would damage the ANC, and the party’s bosses are fully aware of that.
That is the background to the energy crisis that has built up over many years, and that is why it cannot possibly be solved ‘at once’.
It is a never-ending list of problems that the utility faces because it just does not have sufficient capacity. This means that when just one power station such as Koeberg is out of commission, the system is in crisis. But now it is also experiencing massive failure – a total of 45 generation units were out last week, of which 38 are now back on.
Clearly Eskom’s problems are interminable and won’t be fixed any time soon, particularly if it continues to hire sub-standard contractors to do maintenance. Eskom’s Chief Operating Officer, Jan Oberholzer, pointed to the problem of the utility being forced to hire contractors who were not up to the job, at a press conference over the weekend. It is positive that there is candour from Eskom, but this admission highlights the fact that not much can be done under ANC rule to turn the utility around.
Eskom now wants to purchase about 1000 MW from businesses like Sappi and Sasol. This could help cover a portion of its generation gap. The question that comes to mind is: Why was this not done some time ago?
Because the government has restricted the amount of power the private sector can generate, there is not much surplus capacity to buy at the moment.
The most durable solution would be to suspend the empowerment and other regulations for the entire power supply industry and allow the private sector to build generating capacity of any size. But the ANC is scared that it would give too much away and that its ideological commitment to transformation and empowerment might be questioned. Never mind that growth and education are the real empowerment drivers.
The DA says the government’s Energy Response Plan Implementation Tracker shows that Ramaphosa’s plan does not have measurable targets and a clear timeline. There is not much happening on new builds, maintenance, and in prosecuting those who sabotage Eskom.
Quick fix
The rehiring of experienced former Eskom staff was meant to be one quick fix. But the Sunday newspaper Rapport said only 18 on a list of 300 experienced former employees had been hired. The reason for this, says trade union Solidarity, is that Eskom is battling against the protests of politicians over the ‘inclusivity’ of the plan to hire former experienced staff.
There’s also no word on the plan to eliminate sabotage and theft at Eskom.There are allegations of political motivation for sabotage and suggestions that it is carried out so contractors can obtain more business to supply parts or repair work. But there are no signs of successful prosecutions. To increase the deterrent effect of any crackdowns on sabotage it would be useful if these are widely publicised.
What might be the response if things get a lot worse?
There could be electricity rationing for households and even non-critical sectors. For example hospitals, airports, and mines might be exempt from rationing, but other users would feel the full impact. One approach to rationing might be to impose a higher price for power use over a certain level. The imposition of a penalty rate would punish those going over a certain threshold. But this could set off protests, if not riots. There have already been protests over the rising cost of living, including the high electricity prices.
If Eskom does get its way and the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, NERSA, does allow a 32 percent rise in electricity prices, there will be national outrage. It will certainly be one way of cutting demand and perhaps reducing the need for load shedding.
The ANC would not like to resort to rationing or hefty power prices rises before the 2024 election, but it might have no choice but to do something unpopular very soon. Its default response will probably be to just let things drift and not take any draconian measures such as lifting all restrictions on new power station builds.
The most likely scenario is that we will continue to have severe power cuts for years ahead. This will raise distrust in government and further drive vast numbers off the power supply and water grids.
Don’t expect solutions from the government, but from your communities, maybe your opposition-controlled local government, neighbourhoods, and yourself. The only problem is that the government might get in your way so as to maintain your reliance on itself.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
If you like what you have just read, support the Daily Friend