The deal being offered by President Joe Biden to Iran, according to press reports in the U.S. and Israel, isn’t the “longer and stronger” agreement President Biden promised.
He held that out for months but Iran refused. Now the Biden Administration is pursuing an unwritten “understanding” to let Iran reach the brink of a nuclear breakout but go no further.
The deal mooted in the press offers financial relief through sanctions waivers, plus a promise of no new sanctions or International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censures, while requesting only that Iran not enrich uranium beyond 60%.
The Wall Street Journal holds that without clear technical restrictions, nothing would compel Iran to reinstall monitoring equipment, turn over data or submit to enhanced inspections.
It isn’t clear what role the IAEA would play.
Last week the U.S. gave Iraq a sanctions waiver to pay Iran $2.76 billion for gas and electricity. This looks like the kind of goodwill gesture—a bribe to keep talking—that the U.S. ruled out in October 2021. The Biden Administration says the waiver is unrelated, citing past payments driven by Iraqi energy needs, but this one is five times as large.
The Administration says Iran will spend the Iraqi funds only on food and medicine.
Iran wants billions more in return for releasing American hostages.
Iran could take tens of billions of dollars and still accumulate more highly enriched uranium, expand its tunnels to protect nuclear facilities from attack, and prepare to develop nuclear weapons.
This mini-deal is less a restraint on Iranian nuclear ambitions than an effort to put those ambitions on hold until after the U.S. presidential election in 2024.