Many African leaders are heading to Moscow for the Russia-Africa Summit, which starts in St. Petersburg tomorrow. These types of summits, which are also held by the US, UK, France, Japan and China, are meant to show the world what wonderful ties the host country has with the continent. They are more often than not diplomatic shows rather than a frank exchange of views.
But a mammoth burning issue has hurtled toward the Summit, and tomorrow will come crashing down in St. Petersburg. It is the matter of Russia’s reimposition last week of a blockade on Ukrainian Black Sea ports that prevents the country exporting grains. Russia warned that ships sailing toward Ukrainian ports could be targets.
This is an issue that goes to the core of African and developing countries’ interests.
It is clearly at odds with the official title of the summit, the “Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, for Peace, Security, and Development”.
So far, African countries have largely kept silent on this. An exception is Abraham Korir Sing’Oei, the recently appointed Permanent Secretary to Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who tweeted that ,“The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab (in) the back.”
Indeed, Russia’s ending of its agreement to allow the passage of ships to and from Ukrainian ports under the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative might have triggered a stay away from the Summit, had leaders stood up for their national interest. The lists of those attending and those staying away could be the big message from the summit.
Russia seems intent on destroying Ukraine’s entire grain infrastructure. Earlier this week there were missile attacks on grain export facilities at the Black Sea ports of Odessa and Chornomorsk, and another on the Danube River.
The result will be to drive up the risk of food insecurity and hunger in the most needy countries. Africa is highly dependent on wheat from both Russia and Ukraine. Much of the Horn of Africa as well as countries in the Middle East rely on Ukrainian wheat. One reason for needy countries buying Ukrainian wheat is that it often trades at a discount on the world market, due to the shortage of storage facilities in the country.
Preventing Ukraine from exporting wheat is further driving up grain and food prices. In the ten days since the imposition of the blockade, wheat prices have risen by more than 17 percent. That will push up global food price inflation and could mean a longer tightening cycle by central banks, and this could prolong lower economic growth.
United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, warned that the Russian blockade, “will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.” In his statement Guterres said the agreements under which Russia lifted its blockade had helped to reduce food prices by over 23 percent since March last year.
It was a UN-brokered deal in July that ended the blockade. The agreement also benefited Moscow, as special permit systems were put in place to allow Russia to export grains and fertilizer. So the move must show increased Russian desperation in the long war.
There have been assurances from Russia ahead of the Summit that, in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, “Africa will not starve.”
“I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis, especially as we expect another record harvest this year,” Putin has said.
It is not clear how Russia will carry out this sort of commitment. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the blockade has meant substantial disruption to the international grain market. And the destruction of export infrastructure in Ukraine means that a large source of supply will be off the market for a long time, and this could substantially push up prices.
The reimposition of the blockade is not about Russian concerns about ships heading for Ukrainian ports carrying weapons. Russia has the right under the UN-brokered agreement to inspect vessels heading into Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The Russian blockade could be more about wanting to further squeeze Ukraine, without regard to the international consequences.
The suggestion in Washington and elsewhere is that Russia is using the blockade and attacks on grain facilities to leverage its demand that the Russian Agricultural Bank be allowed to use SWIFT, the international payment mechanism, from which Russia has been excluded. Under the Black Sea Grains Initiative, there is a special permit system in place for Russian shipping carrying grains and fertiliser. The UN is working on more flexible payment options, and the European Union is considering allowing SWIFT payment to a subsidiary of the bank. So it is not as though there has been no progress on what Russia has wanted.
The blockade on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports might well backfire on Putin. Much of the developing world, including African countries, and China, a major importer of Ukrainian grains, are the big losers.
About 64 percent of Ukraine’s wheat exports go to developing countries, much of that to China, and a fair share to Africa.
Russia could quickly lose its friends who have up to now taken what they call a “neutral” stance on the invasion of Ukraine. The pressure could soon build, as support for Russia withers away. Many developing countries should be very worried about developments on the Black Sea. They may not remain neutral when a rise in wheat prices triggers riots on the streets of their capital cities.
But what accounts for the silence of much of Africa so far? Clearly, Russia knows how to work the continent. Through security arrangements, Russia is providing a unique service which helps vulnerable leaders not committed to democracy to stay in power. The Wagner group, which remains an instrument of Russian policy after the coup attempt, is present in at least five countries, and its services are often paid for with revenues from mines it protects. And then there is the threat to African countries that are not on Russia’s side of the potential use of means to disrupt governments and elections.
Africa is important to Russia as a source of support in the General Assembly, as it can often rely on a heavy share of Africa votes in its favour. Showing it has friends is a considerable political advantage, and helps it achieve an air of legitimacy around its actions.
The reimposition of the blockade could give many of Russia’s supporters second thoughts. While the war in Ukraine had little direct impact on many countries, they were prepared to adopt a neutral stance, but now Russia’s desperation and the wider consequences have been driven home, and they could back away.
What rabbit can Putin pull out of the hat in St. Petersburg this week?
African countries know that Russia cannot afford to offer them free wheat on an open-ended basis, and they know it can offer them little in trade, aid and investment.
Will President Cyril Ramaphosa and his colleagues be prepared to speak out at the summit?
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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