Four by-elections were held across the country on Wednesday. The ANC was the incumbent in all four wards, and had a mixed day, defending two and losing two.
In uMhlathuze (Richards Bay) in northern KwaZulu-Natal the ANC lost a seat to the IFP. The IFP overturned a 40 percentage point deficit to win the seat, with that party’s vote share going from 23% in the 2021 local government election to 53% on Wednesday. By contrast, the ANC saw its vote share drop from 63% to 46%.
This was the first by-election held since the death of IFP founder and stalwart, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, and continues a trend in KwaZulu-Natal, where the IFP has been gaining at the expense of the ANC.
What is concerning, however, is that the by-election was necessary because the sitting councillor had resigned after surviving an attempt on his life.
The IFP and the ANC now both have 25 seats on the 67-seat council, which is governed by an IFP-ACDP-FF+-DA coalition.
The other seat the ANC lost was in North West in Maquassi Hills (Wolmaransstad). Here the EFF won a ward off the ANC in a close race. On Wednesday the EFF secured 798 votes to the ANC’s 745. The PA also stood a candidate in the by-election, winning nearly 10% of the vote.
Elsewhere in North West, in Madibeng (Brits) the ANC had an easier time of it, winning 86% of the vote compared to the 63% it won in November 2021. The EFF was the only challenger, winning 14%. The ANC benefited from the decision of a local party, Save Madibeng, to not stand a candidate in Wednesday’s poll. In 2021 its candidate had won nearly 30% of the vote in the seat.
The final by-election was in Blouberg, in the far north of Limpopo. On Wednesday the ANC won 65% of the vote. However, in 2021 it had won over 80% of the vote. The EFF pushed the ANC hard here in the by-election, seeing its vote share rise from 13% to nearly 35% on Wednesday.
Wednesday’s by-elections show that the ANC is still relatively strong in rural South Africa, with the exception of KwaZulu-Natal, where its support is collapsing. Its performance in Maquassi Hills will also be a concern, but it has not seen the same level of haemorrhaging of votes in North West as in KwaZulu-Natal.
[Image: http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/Laws-and-Regulations-Electoral-Commission/, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=56098821]