A new survey comparing political party support today with the results of surveys in March this year and July last year shows that ANC support levels ‘appear to have slipped somewhat’, with the DA’s and the IFP’s support having ‘lifted’, and the EFF’s support having remained around the 10% mark.
So says the Social Research Foundation (SRF) of the latest of its commissioned surveys of political sentiment in South Africa. It was conducted this month among 1 412 geographically and demographically representative voters. This survey had a national margin of error of 5% (and only parties that polled above the margin of error are included in the report).
While stressing that the ‘survey data is not a forecast of South Africa’s 2024 national elections’, the SRF offers the following as its tentative conclusions: ‘The data reveals that ANC support levels appear to have slipped somewhat relative to July 2022 and March 2023. DA support levels appear to have lifted over that same period as has support for the IFP. EFF support appears to be pinned near the 10% mark. All other parties have support levels near or under the margin of error.’
The following graphs – based on the question, ‘If the general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for?’ – present results for a 56% turnout, and a 66% turnout.
The SRF notes that the earlier data for 2023 and 2022 are drawn from two earlier SRF surveys. The first was a survey of 1 517 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted in March 2023. That survey had a national margin of error of 4%. The second was a survey of 3 204 demographically and geographically representative voters conducted in July 2022. That survey had a national margin of error of 1.7%.
The SRF is a think-tank focusing on public policy issues and the promotion of democracy,
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