2024 is not just an election year. It’s perhaps THE election year. But not just in South Africa.
In the upcoming year, the global political landscape is set to witness a remarkable electoral spectacle – over 60 elections spanning the globe. With an aggregate population of approximately 4.2 billion, nations are gearing up for a series of national and regional elections, marking what is anticipated to be the most extensive election year in history.
This noteworthy election year encompasses seven of the world’s ten most populous nations, and notably, the three reasonably democratic BRICS members, Brazil, India and South Africa, who will hold elections, while on the democratic flipside Russia will embark on its own Russian version of an “election”.
Here is a brief list of the biggest elections of 2024.
United States: A Nation Divided
The United States, the global powerhouse, is set for a huge electoral clash as President Joe Biden braces for a challenge from the charismatic former President Donald Trump. With polls currently indicating a tight race, Trump is gaining ground, particularly in critical swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. The outcome of this election will not only determine the next leader of the most powerful nation on earth but also signal the direction of American politics and its global impact.
Mexico: Historic Shifts and Sheinbaum’s Ascent
Staying in North America, as Mexico prepares for its national elections on 2 June 2024, the nation is on the cusp of historical change. Incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ineligible for re-election, paving the way for a new leader. Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman and Jewish person to be elected as the Mexico City head of government, currently leads the polls. Her potential presidency holds the promise of new leadership and a significant shift in Mexico’s political landscape. In the past three decades, Mexico has demonstrated poor performance in terms of growth, inclusion, and poverty reduction when benchmarked against comparable nations. With an average economic growth rate slightly exceeding 2 percent per annum from 1980 to 2022, Mexico has faced limitations in achieving progress in convergence compared to high-income economies.
India: Democracy at a Crossroads
India, the world’s largest democracy, finds itself at a pivotal juncture in 2024, where its political choices will significantly influence the nation’s path forward. While India has witnessed remarkable progress, particularly in areas like electricity provision—a noteworthy achievement that might spark envy among South Africans—the upcoming election stands as a critical referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies. During his tenure, Modi initiated sweeping changes, repealing more than 1200 pieces of legislation. This move, though emblematic of his commitment to streamlining governance, is conversely accompanied by a centralisation of executive power. As India heads to the polls, the electorate will cast its vote on Modi’s policies and tenure.
Beyond the domestic landscape, the election holds international significance as it will influence who leads India in the escalating tensions with China. The geopolitical dynamics between these two nations have shaped regional and global narratives. As the democratic machinery gears up for this significant event, recent polling, as of 3 October 2023, suggests that 61% of participants favor the incumbent Narendra Modi, with Rahul Gandhi trailing at 21% in the India TV-CNX poll. This numerical snapshot, however, is just a glimpse into the broader narrative of India’s democratic deliberation, where citizens will cast their votes not just for a leader but for the future trajectory of their nation on the global stage.
United Kingdom: The End of Tory Dominance?
The United Kingdom is bracing for a potential upheaval as it approaches its general election in the second half of 2024. The Conservative Party, in power since 2010 and securing a landslide victory in 2019, is facing discontent. Economic challenges, controversies surrounding Boris Johnson’s pandemic response, and internal divisions within the Tory ranks have clouded the party’s prospects. Polls suggest that this election might mark the end of the Conservative Party’s 14-year reign, introducing a new chapter in the UK’s political landscape.
Taiwan: Defending Democracy Against Chinese Threats
Taiwan, facing increasing threats from China, held crucial elections on 13 January 2024. Pro-Western candidate Lai Ching-te leads in the polls as the democratic island grapples with a likely delicate phase in its history. The outcome will not only determine Taiwan’s leadership but also influence the island’s ability to navigate through geopolitical tensions and assert its autonomy in the face of Chinese imperialist claims.
Indonesia and Pakistan: Political Crossroads in Southeast Asia
In February, both Indonesia and Pakistan, the world’s fourth and fifth-most populous countries respectively, will hold general elections. Indonesia seeks a new leader as President Joko Widodo is ineligible for a third term, while Pakistan aims to recover from a constitutional crisis that led to the ousting and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. These elections will shape the political trajectories of two key nations in Southeast Asia, influencing regional dynamics.
Belarus, Iran, and Russia: Elections Amidst Unchanging Policies
While elections in Belarus, Iran, and Russia may not bring about significant policy changes, they are expected to trigger protests, showcasing public discontent and challenging the stability of these nations. The outcomes will be closely watched on the international stage for any potential repercussions.
Southern Africa’s Electoral Ensemble: Mozambique, Botswana, and Namibia
Mozambique, Botswana, and Namibia, as part of Southern Africa’s electoral ensemble, find themselves at the crossroads of political change in 2024. In a region where South Africa has traditionally held economic and moral leadership, these elections become even more significant as the dynamics within the continent undergo shifts.
South Africa, historically a stalwart of economic prowess and perceived as a moral authority in Southern Africa, is witnessing a waning of its influence, and in this context, the electoral outcomes of Mozambique, Botswana, and Namibia take on added importance. While these elections might not garner the same global attention as those in larger nations, they are critical in defining the evolving power dynamics within Southern Africa, where the once unchallenged influence of South Africa faces new complexities.
European Union: Shifting Dynamics in Parliamentary Elections
In 2024, significant elections extend beyond individual nation-states, with the European Union set to conduct parliamentary elections in June. The European Parliament, the sole directly elected transnational assembly globally, witnesses participation from European Union (EU) citizens every five years. This electoral process spans all 27 EU member countries. This comes against the backdrop of a resurgence of conservative, libertarian, and right-wing parties across the continent. The potential consequences of this election outcome are far-reaching, particularly concerning Europe’s continued support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. A number of parties in Western Europe have voiced opposition to providing sustained aid to Kyiv’s ongoing war efforts.
UN Security Council: Navigating Global Dynamics
The UN Security Council elections for five non-permanent seats in 2024 hold paramount importance in shaping global diplomacy. The nations securing these seats will play a role in international affairs for the next two years, influencing decisions on peace and security on the world stage.
Conclusion
As 2024’s global elections unfold, the discourse in Western media, particularly on the left, paints a picture of pushing back against a resurgent right wing. Conversely, on the political right, these elections are often framed as protests against the established liberal order. The recent victories of figures like Javier Milei in Argentina or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands only serve to deepen this duality, enthralling some and appalling others. In the realm of contemporary political commentary, especially on social media, discussions inevitably circle back to the perceived dominance or resistance of the liberal order.
Yet, it is crucial to recognise that the issues at the forefront of these debates—mass immigration, assimilation, culture, wokeness, the war in Ukraine—are not universally on the ballot. As nations like India, Pakistan, countries in southern Africa, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Panama, among others, head to the ballot box in 2024, their electoral conversations revolve around diverse local concerns rather than the overarching global narratives or specific cultural issues dominating Western discourse.
One thing is certain amidst this litany of elections: the themes of the 2024 election season transcend the issues that Western mainstream media portray. While some nations grapple with questions of cultural identity and global order, others are navigating issues of economic development, regional stability, and internal governance. What remains indisputable is that 2024 will stand out as a monumental election year, a testament to the collective voice of diverse nations potentially shaping their destinies.
[Image: VOA]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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