The Conservatives are facing an electoral wipeout similar to their 1997 defeat by Labour. This is according to a new survey by YouGov.
The survey of 14 000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain 169 seats, while Labour will win 385 – a 120-seat majority. The poll was about seven times larger than typical polls.
Every Red Wall seat won from Labour in 2019 will be lost according to the poll and 11 Cabinet ministers will lose their seats. The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019.
Reform UK won’t win any seats, but support for it will be decisive in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.
The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.
The Scottish National Party will also lose almost half of its seats to Labour, retaining only 25.
Lord Frost, a Conservative peer, described the findings as ‘stunningly awful’ for the party, saying it was facing ‘a 1997-style wipeout – if we are lucky’.
He said a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to frontline politics could leave the Conservatives facing ‘an extinction event’.
Lord Frost said the Conservatives had ‘to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more’.
The poll was commissioned by a group of Conservative donors – the Conservative Britain Alliance.
The big sample size enabled YouGov to break down results by constituency using its Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification method, which successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.
It also factors in the undecided voters and the way in which they are likely to vote.
The results are therefore the most credible forecast of an election held tomorrow.
The Conservatives will lose almost every seat in the north, more than 70% in Yorkshire, and more than 50% in the Midlands.
They will suffer heavy losses to the Liberal Democrats in Blue Wall seats of Southern England which have been held for decades – one held since 1880.
The results are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s.
About 80% of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019, but would not do so now, were Leave voters.
The results do not factor in tactical voting, which many experts believe will result in even more losses.