A new poll released by IPSOS shows that support for the ANC continues to fall, with below 40% of registered voters saying that they would cast a ballot for the party.
According to the poll, which had 3 600 respondents and was conducted between October and December last year, the EFF had a slight edge over the DA at that time, with 19% of those polled saying they would vote for the Red Berets, compared to 17% who said they would vote for the DA.
Nearly 10% of respondents were unsure how they would vote, or would not answer the question.
Both the IFP and ActionSA had the support of just more than 3% of those polled.
When the numbers were reworked to include those who had not given a preference, the ANC figure rose slightly to 40.5%, with the DA growing to 20.5% and the EFF at 19.6%. The IFP saw support at about 5%.
Ipsos also presented various turnout scenarios. In a high turnout scenario, where about 70% of the electorate turned up to vote, the ANC would be at around 44% of the vote, the DA at 20.2%, while the EFF would manage 18.5%.
In an election with medium turnout, where about 56% of voters pitch at the polls, the ANC was at 45%, the DA 20.6%, and the EFF 17.7%.
Finally, in a low-turnout scenario, where only about 40% of voters make their mark, the ANC would see support at about 46.3%, the DA at 21.0%, and the EFF with 16.7%.
Ipsos said it seemed that a coalition at national level was likely, but not ‘guaranteed’.