Syrian rebels have taken control of the strategic city of Hama, dealing a serious blow to President Bashar al-Assad and his allies Russia and Iran, and raising the stakes for an insurgency that now controls a huge swathe of territory.
Capturing Hama leaves only Homs – Assad’s ancestral home – in government hands on the road from northern Syria to Damascus. Homs sits at a strategic juncture between Damascus, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Lebanese border.
“If they continue at this pace toward Homs and capture parts of Homs, we need to just pause and seriously consider the fact that this regime could actually collapse,” said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, a Belgian conflict resolution organisation.
Russian aircraft launched strikes in opposition-held territory and Iran’s foreign minister flew to Damascus to pledge support for the government against the rebels.
But both Russia and Iran are preoccupied with Ukraine and Israel. Hezbollah has been battered by months of war with Israel.
Syria hosts Russian military bases for staging the Kremlin’s operations in the Middle East and Africa. Syria, for Iran, is an important symbol of its ability to project power abroad and station forces near Israel.
The rebel advance also empowers Turkey, a backer of the opposition. Turkey offered in recent years to stabilise the conflict through an agreement with Assad, an offer he has refused.