The South African Communist Party (SACP) has warned that unless the African National Congress (ANC) curbs corruption, improves service delivery and delivers economic well-being to households, it will fail to win over voters in 2021 and 2024.
The warning is contained in a discussion document drafted for the party’s fourth special national congress next month, according to News24.
The document reportedly states: ‘While the hope that the presidency [of] Cyril Ramaphosa will renew and unite the ANC, clean up government and [state-owned enterprises] has given the ANC breathing space, it is absolutely clear that the 2021 local and the 2024 national and provincial elections will not give a mandate to the ANC to remain in government unless the service delivery weaknesses and the corruption and looting have been eradicated and the financial and economic situation of each family has significantly improved. The prospect of achieving this faces serious challenges.’
IRR analysts have long argued that ANC voters vote first and foremost according to their material circumstances and whether these are improving. IRR analysis shows that ANC electoral support increased in the first decade after 1994 (it was roughly 6 percentage points higher in 2004 than when Nelson Mandela led the party in 1994) because the party did so well in improving the living standards of its supporters. Support fell thereafter because living standards stagnated in the wake of Jacob Zuma’s ascendancy, which coincided with the crafting of policies that undermined property rights and the proper functioning of a market economy. Examples range from the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme, to expropriation without compensation (EWC), the cancellation of more than ten bilateral investment treaties, South Africa’s misguided visa policies, and the destructive Mining Charter.
The most damaging of these – EWC and NHI – remain central to ANC policy-making under President Cyril Ramaphosa.