The Eastern Cape has experienced the largest population outflow of all South Africa’s nine province since 2011.
The latest figures in Stats SA’s annual mid-year population estimates report suggest that, despite having two metropolitan centres in Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City, destinations beyond the province’s borders are more attractive to Eastern Cape residents seeking jobs and better services in cities.
The province’s population grew by just 0,3% over the past year, while the majority of South Africa’s provinces grew by around 2%.
The Eastern Cape’s share of the total national population has plummeted since 2002, from 14,3% to 11,3% this year. This decline of almost 21% is the biggest of all nine provinces.
Between 2011 and 2016, the Eastern Cape experienced the largest outflow of migrants (500 000 people), while only around 180 000 entered, meaning the province experienced negative net migration of about 320 000.
Research suggests why the Eastern Cape is becoming less popular.
The province has high poverty levels compared to other provinces. In 2018, 39% of households in Buffalo City were classified as poor (spending R2 500 or less a month) compared to just 17% in Cape Town and an average of 28% across all South Africa’s metropolitan centres.
Moreover, nearly half (47%) of the Eastern Cape’s population is unemployed based on the expanded definition – the second highest after the North West. And, according to SASSA, social grant beneficiaries as a percentage of the provincial population stood at 25% for the Eastern Cape, which, along with Limpopo, is higher than any other province. T
The Eastern Cape lags in education, too, being second to last when it comes to National Senior Certificate examination pass rates.
Finally, as the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed, the Eastern Cape’s healthcare system is woefully inadequate. Recent reports have described how Eastern Cape hospitals are struggling to cope with the influx of patients, as staff at some hospitals embark on go-slows over various grievances about their working environment. Nurses and doctors have spoken about the lack of resources, and the mismanagement of hospitals.
IRR analysts point out that more rural provinces, such as the Northern Cape, the North West and Mpumalanga, perform better than the Eastern Cape on the IRR’s annual Quality of Life Index.
They say that, without drastic improvements in service delivery and greater efforts to stimulate economic opportunity, the Eastern Cape will continue to lose skills, not only to Gauteng and the Western Cape, but even to other rural provinces.
[Picture: South African Tourism, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=67610433]