Polls in key swing states in the US are tightening, with the lead held by President Donald Trump’s challenger, Joe Biden, shrinking.
Polls show that while the lead held at a national level by Joe Biden, who served as the US vice president between 2009 and 2017, is fairly steady, the lead he holds in swing states is more fragile.
A poll in Pennsylvania, a key swing state which was vital in giving Trump the Presidency in 2016, has Joe Biden ahead but by a much smaller margin that previously. The poll, conducted by Monmouth University this week, gives Biden a four-point lead, down from a thirteen-point lead in July.
The betting markets, which are often very accurate in predicting electoral winners, are backing Biden to a lesser degree than they were previously. At the moment, the betting markets are indicating that wagers placed by people are almost evenly split between those who think Biden or Trump will win.
A website, FiveThirtyEight, which analyses American political polls and provides polling averages, has Biden ahead significantly in practically every poll, as do the Financial Times and the Economist. However, as the 2016 election showed, where Trump pulled off probably the greatest political surprise since World War II, polls often get it wrong. Nevertheless, the lead that Biden enjoys, as well as the number of polls he leads in, will give the former Vice President some confidence that he will emerge victorious in November.