In the early hours today, Trump was poised to defy expectations and win a second term, taking Florida and Texas, and with strong support in North Carolina and Georgia, while Joe Biden’s only inroads into previous Trump states was Arizona.
All eyes then turned to the “Rust Belt”, a part of the United States whose industry and culture was once defined by steel and manufacturing. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (WIMIPA) became the ‘blue wall’ for Democrats that Trump bust open for Republicans in 2016 with talk of ‘our factory workers’ and ‘big beautiful coal’. This talk was followed up by a booming economy, but a disturbing 2020.
From the Republican perspective, Biden’s saying in the final presidential debate that he would rather do away with fossil fuels was seen to be a strong indication that the ‘blue wall’ would bust red again.
It seemed today that Trump would regain the Rust Belt, holding strong leads in the early hours. But at 3.45 this afternoon, the writing on the wall strongly suggested that Trump would exit the White House as a result of sentiment in the same Rust Belt that first invited him in.
With most expected votes in Michigan (91%) and Wisconsin (95%) counted, the race is neck-and-neck, with a margin of less than 1%. In Pennsylvania, fewer expected votes have been counted (64%) and Trump is strongly in the lead.
WIMIPA will be decisive because whichever candidate wins two of these three states is most likely to win the election.
A candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. If all other states go as expected (most likely at this stage), Biden needs 25 and Trump needs 23 Electoral College votes to win. That is more than the biggest state (Pennsylvania) alone can offer, and less than any two states provide.
This means that in WIMIPA you need two of the three to win, whichever candidate, whatever two of the three states.
Biden needs to win 58% of the uncounted votes in Michigan and Wisconsin. That would require 313 000 votes combined. If Biden gets those votes, he will win even if Trump takes Pennsylvania. But it may be possible for Biden to win with fewer actual votes because of third-party candidates. Or else Biden needs to win Pennsylvania and one of the other WIMIPA states.
By contrast ,Trump only needs to win 40% of the uncounted votes in Pennsylvania to win that state, but then he also needs to win 56% of the uncounted votes in Michigan or 70% of the uncounted votes in Wisconsin.
Given that the last votes to be counted in these states come from heavily urbanised, traditionally pro-Democrat areas, or else are sent by post, which favours the Democrat party too, the odds are heavily against Trump at this stage in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly against Trump in Pennsylvania, too.
Trump supporters will take some solace in the fact that the Senate looks likely to remain in conservative hands. Trump opponents may start celebrating, provisionally.
Should Trump lose Wisconsin, but hold Michigan then Pennsylvania will tip the balance and that is too soon to call that state for certain.