A recent decision by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Taiwan will give the Biden administration a long-term headache on America’s China policy. 

In a statement issued on the State Department’s website, Pompeo stated that he would be removing all self-imposed restrictions on America’s diplomats’ interactions with Taiwanese officials. 

Such restrictions were specifically made in order to maintain, what is often termed, “strategic ambiguity” over America’s relationship with Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a renegade province which will be united with the Chinese mainland one day, by force if necessary. 

Taiwan, however, has been de facto independent for most of its history post-World War 2. After decades of military rule, it began the process of democratisation in the late 1980s and today is a thriving liberal democratic society. 

Due to China’s claims on Taiwan, however, most countries still do not have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but rather must set up de facto embassies and consulates under different names. International diplomats need to be careful with official interactions with Taiwanese officials, as any official contacts might be perceived by China as violating the One-China Policy – the official principle that asserts China’s sovereignty over Taiwan under which countries must have diplomatic relations with China. 

The US has pushed the envelope on Taiwan over the course of the Trump administration, starting in late 2016 when Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) gave Donald Trump a congratulatory phone call following his election victory. Over the following years as the Trump administration continued to impose tariffs and sanctions on China, Taiwan became somewhat of a beacon of democracy against a great authoritarian communist state. In 2020 US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar made an official visit to Taiwan – the most senior US official to visit Taiwan since the US established official diplomatic relations with Beijing. 

The latest move by Pompeo to remove restrictions on US diplomats is a little more suspect, however. The restrictions were lifted just days before Joe Biden is to be inaugurated. This means that not only will Joe Biden inherit the US’s already-bad relations with China, but he’ll be doing so just as Pompeo has further “poked the bear” by removing these restrictions. It will not be easy for Biden to simply re-impose these restrictions, however, as he will no doubt face a political backlash domestically, giving Republicans a lot of political ammunition to accuse Biden of being soft on China. 

It’s unclear for the moment what a Joe Biden administration’s approach to China will be. Biden has generally expressed criticism of Trump’s China policy and called for an end to the trade war, but with domestic opinion in the US turning sharply against China, this might be politically difficult for Biden to do. Pew Research reported that unfavourable views toward China have reached record highs in the US as well as a number of other countries. 

Pompeo has already received a backlash from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd was also very critical of Pompeo, accusing him of removing the restrictions for personal political gain: 

One of Biden’s greatest challenges will be the mending of the US-China relationship. It is likely to be what he and his party will seek to do. The Democratic Party has held different positions to those of a hawkish GOP always eager for conflict on the world stage. The only question in this instance is at what cost? That cost may almost certainly be Taiwan – a thriving liberal democracy in East Asia, or exactly the kind of country with which the US should have close relations. 

Time will tell whether or not Taiwan will be a casualty of a new Biden foreign policy, but it is now certain that much of Trump’s foreign policy has allowed Taiwan to shine on the world stage – especially in the year 2020 with Taiwan’s excellent handling of the pandemic. Indeed, Taiwan is a model global citizen, but only time will tell how this might change under a Joe Biden administration. 

One of Biden’s greatest challenges will be the mending of the US-China relationship. It is likely to be what he and his party will seek to do. The Democratic Party has held different positions to those of a hawkish GOP always eager for conflict on the world stage. The only question in this instance is at what cost? That cost may almost certainly be Taiwan – a thriving liberal democracy in East Asia, or exactly the kind of country with which the US should have close relations. 

Time will tell whether or not Taiwan will be a casualty of a new Biden foreign policy, but it is now certain that much of Trump’s foreign policy has allowed Taiwan to shine on the world stage – especially in the year 2020 with Taiwan’s excellent handling of the pandemic. Indeed, Taiwan is a model global citizen, but only time will tell how this might change under a Joe Biden administration. 

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contributor

Nicholas Babaya is an alumnus of Rondebosch Boys' High School and Rhodes University, where he graduated with an honours degree in Chinese. Babaya is an analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), a think tank specialising in political risk, economic policy and scenario planning.