Rumours of rioting, insurrection, insurgency, and even a coup, can have grave consequences even if they’re not true. The less secure the government feels, the more repressive it is likely to get.
‘Rumours doing the rounds that Cyril is in hiding for fear of his life and an insurgency is planned for 23 August. Any corroboration?’
Thus read a message on a local WhatsApp group last week Monday, 9 August 2021.
I suspect the term ‘insurgency’ was mistaken, and should have been ‘insurrection’. That is, after all, what president Cyril Ramaphosa, and a good part of the media, called the July riots.
Responding, someone suggested that there was some truth to the rumours, and that this time, intelligence is being heard.
Yet the rumours seemed ill-supported. There was little sign of it in the media or on public social networks. Of course there are a lot of WhatsApp groups that played a role in the July riots of which your humble columnist is not a member.
A couple of days later, Netwerk24 ran a story (paywalled), reporting on a leaked intelligence report that says something is being planned for 23 August, including targeted attacks on government facilities such as police stations, military bases and prisons.
MyBroadband published a rehash of the Netwerk24 story a day later, and another day later so did The South African.
Both emphasised plans to shut down national key points, and acquire firearms from police and army sources (as opposed to legal gun owners, one notes).
Police plans
Reportedly, police are taking the threats seriously. According to the leaked report, they plan to be prepared this time.
This might have made a welcome change from their glaring absence during the looting in July, but it is not very comforting to hear that their plans, as listed here, are all about protecting themselves, and not citizens or their property:
No police officer will be working alone on Monday 23 August
All cops on duty will be told to wear bulletproof vests – even those in charging offices
All firearms will have to be stored in a safe place, or remain upon an officer’s person.
Cops who don’t have their own vehicles must be fetched by colleagues or anyone who can drive them.
Any threat made in relation to this plot must be taken seriously, by ALL members of the police force.
According to KZN premier Sihle Zikalala, as reported on IOL, there will be no shutdown on 23 August in his province. Of course, one has to question the reliability of both the source, who is a Zuma supporter, and the messenger, ditto, in this case.
The entire thing, then, hangs on the veracity of the ‘leaked intelligence report’, and I’m far from convinced we can trust even verified intelligence produced by South Africa’s dysfunctional government, let alone shady leaked reports.
So, perhaps something is being planned, but probably not.
The dangers of a planned insurrection or coup are obvious. It would pit one faction of the ANC against another, cause a great deal of unnecessary bloodshed, and though it is not likely to succeed, would inflict further damage upon our gravely wounded economy.
There are serious consequences of rumours of riots and insurrection, however, even if they don’t happen.
Illegal searches
Immediately after the July riots, we witnessed gross violations of Constitutional rights, as the police went door to door, invading people’s homes, confiscating any new-looking goods for which residents could not produce a receipt.
To distract from their utter failure to anticipate, prevent or limit the looting and destruction, the jumped-up jackboot Bheki Cele – how did he survive the cabinet reshuffle? – made a big show of the draconian crackdown. The South African Police Service boasted of their illegal searches and illegal confiscations on Twitter, a highlight of which was this great bust of half a dozen ‘new pairs of tekkies and shoes unaccounted for’.
The Bill of Rights says, in section 14: ‘Everyone has the right to privacy, which includes the right not to have their person or home searched, their property searched, their possessions seized, or the privacy of their communications infringed.’
These are exactly the rights that are under threat when a government becomes insecure, defensive and paranoid. The ANC faces a precipitous decline in its electoral support, with more people now not voting than voting for the ANC. It is likely to lose its outright majority, if not in 2024, then in 2029. Rumours of insurrection will only push the government, its military and its police further into repressive territory.
Many recent laws have chipped away at personal privacy and freedom, although the courts have, on occasion, pushed back to remind the government of its constitutional limitations, as they did when they declared the Regulation of Interception of Communications and Provision of Communication-Related Information Act 70 of 2002 (RICA) to be unconstitutional.
Legitimate protest
Perhaps the biggest threat is that legitimate criticism, civil disobedience, protest, and political organisation will get cast as seditious. Mere fear of the security forces can be a powerful silencer of dissent; actual crackdowns on public protest even more so.
One only needs to think back to the repression of the latter decades of Apartheid rule to recognise the dangers of a security apparatus that is a law unto itself.
When there is intelligence about planned violent unrest, it is the job of the police to prepare for it, and prevent or contain it. Leaking such intelligence to the public, even when the intel is good, is a gross dereliction of duty that only serves to fuel fear and paranoia.
It gives the government, and would-be petty tyrants like Bheki ‘General’ Cele, a fig leaf behind which to hide gross violations of the civil rights of citizens. It even gives them an excuse to become armed robbers and looters themselves, going door to door, confiscating nice stuff without any legal cause or justification, which then inevitably ‘disappears’.
In a civilised country like South Africa, where a Bill of Rights protects the people from their government, the powers of the police are strictly circumscribed. The recent actions of the SAPS show that not only is it derelict in carrying out its actual duties, but it freely steps beyond its constitutional limitations.
Illegal surveillance, illegal raids on private homes, and illegal searches of vehicles and pedestrians need to stop. Instead of giving the police more excuses to infringe on the legitimate rights of citizens by validating the insecurities of government, we should be standing up against police impunity and abuses.