The ANC’s total provincial vote share is above 50% in only four provinces, according to latest results from the IEC.

With just over two-thirds of the vote counted, the ANC had only won the support of more than half of all voters in the Eastern Cape, North West, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo.

Although Monday’s election will have no bearing on provincial governments, IRR analysts said they indicated broad electoral trends.

In 2016 the ANC failed to win more than 50% of the vote in only two provinces – the Western Cape and Gauteng.

The ANC’s support in the nine provinces (with 2016 results in brackets) are as follows:

  • Eastern Cape: 64.1% (65.3%);
  • Free State: 49.9% (61.5%);
  • Gauteng: 35.9% (45.8%);
  • KwaZulu-Natal: 42.2% (57.5%);
  • Limpopo: 67.0% (68.8%);
  • Mpumalanga: 59.1% (70.7%);
  • North West: 55.3% (59.4%);
  • Northern Cape: 49.8% (58.3%); and
  • Western Cape: 18.9% (26.2%).

The only province where the ANC was not leading was the Western Cape, where the DA was the single biggest party, with 54.2%. In 2016 the DA won over 60% of the vote in the province. The party’s second best showing to date was Gauteng, where it managed 30% of the vote, coming second to the ANC. It was also the second biggest party in the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, and Free State.

Meanwhile, the EFF’s best showing was in North West, where it secured nearly 16% of the vote, second to the ANC. It was the second-biggest party, in provincial terms, in Mpumalanga and Limpopo.

The IFP, with a quarter of the vote was the second-biggest party in KwaZulu-Natal, followed by the DA, which had 11.6%.

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