South Africans should prepare for another five years of load-shedding.
This is according to Professor Hartmut Winkler from the University of Johannesburg.
Winkler’s prediction contradicts the claim by mineral resources and energy minister, Gwede Mantashe, that the energy crisis could be solved within six to twelve months.
Speaking to ENCA as reported by Daily Investor, Winkler said the country has a shortfall of 6 000MW of electricity, equating to six load-shedding stages.
‘To come up with 6,000MW of electricity to stop load-shedding is going to be difficult’, he said.
He added that it is unclear what challenges Eskom’s generation fleet will face in future. ‘We could not predict that Kusile would have the disastrous loss of three units,’ he said.
‘There is no margin of error, and we have to get used to a situation that load-shedding will be part of our lives for the next five years’, Winkler said.
‘The best we can hope for is that at the same time next year, we are in the same position as we are now.’
Winkler says that the electricity minister should admit to the state of the current situation and say that he would stabilise the generation decline.
A significant improvement is only likely in eighteen months. Then the situation may slowly start to improve.