Three by-elections were held on Wednesday, with the ANC defending three seats – two in the Eastern Cape and one in KwaZulu-Natal.
In Kou-Kamma, on the border with the Western Cape, the ANC retained its seat, but with a reduced majority. On Wednesday the ANC won 46% of the vote, a slight decline compared to the 50% it won in November 2021. The PA came second, seeing its vote share jump from 13% to nearly 40%. This increase seems to have come largely at the expense of the DA, who saw its proportion of the vote in the ward drop from 27% to 12%.
The ANC had an easier day out in the province’s other by-election, held in Port St Johns. Here the party convinced Patric Nomarhobo, who had previously stood as an independent in the ward in the November 2012 poll, to be its candidate. The strategy paid off with the ANC easily retaining the ward, with 72% of the vote. It had won less than 50% of the vote in the November 2021 election in the ward, which Nomarhobo had almost won as an independent. It seems that most of Nomarhobo’s supporters voted for him, despite his standing for the ANC and not as an independent.
The DA had a good showing in the ward too, winning over 20% of the vote, after having only managed 4.4% in that ward in 2021.
The final by-election was held in uMvoti in the KwaZulu-Natal midlands. Here the ANC failed to hold on to its seat, with the IFP emerging victorious. This continues the IFP resurgence in KwaZulu-Natal.
On Wednesday the ANC saw its vote decline from 47% to 25%. Conversely, the IFP saw its vote leap from 25% to 53%. The win now sees the IFP become the biggest party on the uMvoti council, holding ten of the municipality’s 27 seats. The other seats are held by the ANC, with nine, the Abantu Batho Congress, which has seven, while the DA holds a single seat.
Overall, the results will be worrying for the ANC. While it did well in Port St Johns, this was because it fielded a popular, local candidate. Its continuing slide in KwaZulu-Natal will remain a major concern for Luthuli House.