Negativity, pessimism, and despair have been three things that have been pretty common in South Africa over the last few years.
Declining infrastructure, increasing murder and crime rates, stubbornly high rates of poverty and unemployment, and a looming debt crisis, made living in South Africa feel like an extreme sport. To go with it all just about any set of data one looked at helped assure a person that the feeling of decay and reversal were not only in their heads, as nearly any statistic with regard to South Africa showed a negative trend.
But things may finally have turned a corner, and perhaps it’s time to start viewing the glass as half-full rather than half-empty.
Significance
The significance of the 29 May election cannot be overemphasised. It was one of those rare before-and-after moments in history. The collapse of the ANC’s vote share and its decision to form a Government of National Unity (GNU), rather than join forces with nativist and authoritarian parties like the EFF and MK, was truly a before-and-after moment, with South African politics and the trajectory of the country being changed by both the election and the ANC’s decision.
Of course, recent South African history serves as a warning here. After Cyril Ramaphosa became President in 2018 the country enjoyed a brief period of “Ramaphoria”, when it seemed South Africa had turned the corner after the horrors of the Zuma years, but it soon became apparent that nothing much would change. Arguably some of Ramaphosa’s policy interventions were even more damaging than those of Zuma. So, we must be careful to not be swept up in Ramaphoria 2.0, and there is a very real risk that South Africans will be left as disappointed as someone who finds coal in their stocking on Christmas morning.
But at the same time, it must be recognised that South Africa is perhaps not on the brink of failed state status, as some commentators have said, and all things considered, South Africans are fairly fortunate.
Our recent election went off fairly smoothly, with the results being accepted by practically all parties, with the exception of MK (although most senior figures in that party, and particularly its leader inhabit a different reality from most other South Africans). Consider the turmoil in the United States, where Republican nominee, Donald Trump, narrowly escaped being assassinated. Relations between people on opposing political sides in that country seem to be much more fraught than they are here.
Or consider the UK, which also recently had an election. Here, as is the British way, the election was held with a minimum of fuss, with the handover of power being understated and rapid, with Rishi Sunak acting with good grace in making way for his rival, Sir Keir Starmer.
But in the UK the Labour Party won a parliamentary landslide, securing 411 of the 650 seats in Westminster. This equates to 63% of seats. However, this landslide was made possible by the British first-past-the-post system, with Labour winning only 33.7% of the vote. This is the lowest popular vote share ever won by a party that has won a majority of seats in a British election. In addition, this system saw parties which received relatively high vote shares not see this reflect in the seats won. The Green Party won 6.4% of the vote but only won four seats while Reform UK won 14%, which was only enough for five seats.
Contrast
In contrast, South Africa’s highly proportional electoral system has meant that the ANC cannot have it all its own way, following the seminal May election. If South Africa had a first-past-the-post system the only parties that would have seats in Parliament would be the ANC, the DA, the IFP, and MK, with the ANC enjoying a comfortable majority. (To get an idea of what South Africa would look like with a hypothetical Westminster system, look here.)
The ANC has been forced to bring other political parties into the Cabinet, with non-ANC ministers bringing a level of energy to the Cabinet not seen for many years.
In short, our political system is working as it was designed to do, with no one party being able to dominate. Many other countries are not that lucky.
Even the ANC’s own behaviour after the election surprised many, in the mature way in which senior figures accepted the results. Of course, in a democracy one shouldn’t praise a political party for accepting the results of an election – one doesn’t applaud a dog for barking. But given the pessimism that often abounds in South Africa (and we are often told it is only a matter of time until South Africa becomes another Zimbabwe), when the ANC acts unlike its ZANU-PF counterparts in Harare it should be praised.
Respite
The current respite from load-shedding is another reason to view the glass as half-full. The country is now going through its longest run without load-shedding in years: a period of over 120 days, or nearly four months. Again, it can be argued that this is not something that the government should be applauded for. Maintaining basic infrastructure is what a government should be doing. This may be true, but just as the ANC should be applauded when it acts like a mature democratic party, given the flailing government South Africa has had for the past decade-and-a-half or so, when there is such a major success such as holding off load-shedding, it should also be applauded.
The stability in the electricity supply has significant other benefits. A stable electricity supply is likely to boost GDP growth by a not insignificant amount. In addition, anyone who has sat without electricity when they want to make supper and watch their favourite television show, knows how frustrating this can be, and how angry this can make them. A stable electricity supply plays an important role in lifting the national mood.
Turnaround
The turnaround in Eskom also shows that the government is capable of halting decay and putting things on the right track – it is not inevitable that South Africa will become another African basket case. That path can be avoided.
On the global markets it seems that investors are prepared to take tentative bets on South Africa. According to insiders banks and investors are piling into South African bonds and equities, with the country being one of the more stable emerging markets at the moment. Of course, this kind of investing is not the same as a company taking a decision to build a mine or a factory in South Africa, but it shows that sentiment may be changing.
Of course, many risks remain, and they cannot be ignored. But perhaps it is time to consider the South African glass half-full, rather than half-empty. And whisper it, but maybe there is something to Ramaphoria 2.0.
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