We have emerged from an extraordinary month. Events in America swept past with the speed and force of a summer tornado. From the Trump Biden debate on June 27th, to the attempted assassination, to Democratic panic that a senile incumbent could not defeat the former president, to Biden’s refusal to yield, to his sudden reversal and emergence of Kamala Harris—it was a script beyond the reach of the best Hollywood writer.
America, as we know, is deeply divided. Consider for a moment what might have happened if the bullet that grazed Donald Trump’s ear had landed millimetres to the right. The martyrdom of a leading presidential candidate could have touched off a paroxysm of violence. Heartfelt mourning would be matched by cheering and celebration. Political activity would be suspended, the country would sink into chaos and uncertainty.
Is this an extreme scenario? I will simply say this: thank God for the miracle of Donald Trump’s survival. We as a country also dodged a bullet.
As I write in early August, we are in the phase of Kamala euphoria. Gone are doubts about her ability to speak sensibly without a teleprompter, her poor performance in the 2020 Democratic primaries, or her unwillingness to address the challenge of illegal immigration. She is now the black, Asian, female hope for resurrection, anointed as the person to block Trump authoritarianism. She must win in order to keep the ship of state on the steady, progressive course set by Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
As for Donald Trump, he is again cast as a mad man, the bull in the china shop, the unguided missile who would upend the world order and set back the cause of fighting climate change. He is the convicted felon, tax cheat, and liar whose strong man persona masks a sinister interior.
Who will win? We don’t have a clue, but there is an emerging consensus that a debate between the two candidates is likely to shape the outcome of the election.
Back in 2016, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, a California academic, Joan Williams, called attention to her recent book entitled “White Working Class.” In it she argued that Clinton risked losing the election unless she paid more attention to traditional Democrats, white workers, union and non-union, who felt ignored by coastal elites. Williams was right, as many working-class whites voted for Trump.
I wonder if a similar sentiment could be at play in this year’s election. Donald Trump has become outspokenly populist, and running mate JD Vance in his acceptance speech denounced Wall Street as well as country-club Republicans. Harris and her vice-presidential pick champion abortion rights, an expanded role for government in health care, and progressive causes like the green new deal. These are messages that don’t necessarily resonate with working people.
Analysts stress the importance of six battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Latest polls indicate that the resurgent Democratic ticket is ahead or tied in these states. If Harris wins these states, she will be president.
Foreign policy has been secondary in the campaign thus far, while inflation and the economy are far more important. Despite inflation steadily coming down, grocery and restaurant prices remain stubbornly high. Trump has the edge on the economy.
Will there be more dramatic events like the ones we witnessed in July? Let’s hope not. Regrettably political violence is always just beneath the surface in America. What is needed now is calm and stability over the remaining two months before the November election.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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