Last night’s massive missile attack on Israel did little damage and failed to demonstrate any new or decisive advantage held by Tehran. Acting in pure rage, the missile attack was a rash decision and with it Tehran, once again alarmed the region rather than gained any new support.
Tehran might now have opened itself up to new pressures and the possibility of a big push by the Sunni Arab states, the US and Israel for regime change.
Over the past fortnight the balance of power in the Middle East has shifted in Israel’s favour. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islam group dedicated to the elimination of Israel, has been seriously degraded.
The explosions of its pagers and walkie talkies, the killing of many of its key commanders, and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah last week have undermined its ability to threaten Israel. After a nearly year-long war, Hamas has been mostly destroyed. And Israel has been able to defend itself for the most part against missile attacks from the Houthis in Yemen, as well as from Iran itself.
Israel has faced a war on multiple fronts and now seems to have the upper hand.
With residents of the northern areas in Israel close to the Lebanese border still unable to return home because of continuing rocket attacks by Hezbollah and the fighting in Gaza, the war is not over. But it just might be coming to an end, due to the sheer force of the Israeli military response and the mounting pressure on Iran, the key supporter of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Iran has suffered a severe setback in its use of proxies across the region. In using its proxies, it has further alarmed its traditional Sunni enemies, like Saudi Arabia. Internally, the country’s clerical leadership, the Mullahs, have for years seemed detached from the country’s economic problems. Large sections of its population are frustrated by the repression and the annoyances of theocratic rule. That will probably mean that the substantial weakening of Tehran’s proxies will result in the loss of legitimacy for the Mullahs.
The war has certainly not ended. There have been rocket attacks from Gaza on Israel in recent weeks. Israel has yet to withdraw from Gaza and return its citizens to the north of the country that has suffered incessant attack from Hezbollah rockets and missiles. Any semblance of peace remains far off.
After so many attempts by the US and the Qataris to find a ceasefire deal and a way of releasing Israeli hostages held by Hamas, any moves toward peace might seem remote. Further, after the past two weeks, Hezbollah is under pressure to show that it can at least keep up the fight. Yet there is a chance that at some stage, and somehow, there could be a deal with Iran, which is now under renewed pressure.
Iran must know that international and domestic pressure can only rise.
Should Donald Trump be elected US President next month, it’s likely that he would take a far tougher stance on Iran than Biden. Trump considers himself a dealmaker, and the deal he just might want to make would be to pressure Ukraine into abandoning the parts of the Donbas already occupied by Russia in exchange for an end to the war.
In exchange for agreeing to hand over parts of the Donbas to Russia and thereby helping to restore Putin’s pride, Trump just might want the go-ahead from Moscow to undertake a regime-change project in Iran. That is why the Mullahs in Tehran should be very scared of a Trump presidency, and might wind down their support to their proxies in coming months.
It is far from a done deal, and one that could turn out to be impractical and unachievable. The one obstacle might be the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, who would not want to see a settlement to a conflict that can keep the US on edge. China, North Korea and Iran are all part of one weapons-trading and diplomatic-support network that would be reluctant to see a deal that could hurt one of their friends. But that still might be the trade they will have to make, in order to at least reset relations with the US.
Israel might soon be able to impose its will on Hamas and Hezbollah, and even the Houthis. Yet Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to destroy Hamas remains far-fetched. Elimination is impossible and shows the absence of clear war aims.
Since the war started, there have been questions around Israel’s plans for the day after. The great writers about war, Sun Tzu and Carl von Clausewitz, gave warnings of the dangers of escalation in the absence of clear objectives in war. The Israeli liberal opposition newspaper Haaretz says that what Netanyahu wants after war is more war. The conflicts could continue without end.
And we still do not know what sort of deal Netanyahu might be open to doing.
There is a strong argument that most Israeli governments would have responded in a very similar way to the Netanyahu government, to the attacks on October 7th . Not forcefully responding at the start would have offered no self-defence and deterrence.
It is now that we really need a statement of war aims and conditions for peace. What might these look like?
It would have to include a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and Lebanon, no rocket attacks, and various guarantees. But who would guarantee this?
Then there is the matter of who will govern Gaza and be in charge of its reconstruction. It would amount to an enormously detailed and tricky negotiation process. All this just might mean a frozen conflict rather than any detailed peace agreement. A formal peace treaty with foes dedicated to your elimination might not be possible.
Much will depend on Iran’s behaviour, as it is the prime backer of Hamas and Hezbollah. The West and much of the Sunni Arab world are now tired of Iran, and they might now take a far tougher line on Tehran, while trying to extract concessions from Israel on a withdrawal from some settlements in the West Bank.
What will South Africa do?
Will South Africa continue to, in effect, fall in behind Iranian policy on the Middle East? Now that Israel has regained the upper hand, South Africa will have to wake up and see that the Iranian position is on shaky ground.
Indeed, the Iranian position will slide away if Trump is elected and much of the West and the Sunni Arab world takes a far tougher line on Tehran. The Sunni Arab countries have been alarmed by Israel’s war against Hamas and the wider risks of the Israel-Hezbollah war.
South Africa had best choose its friends a lot more carefully.
[Photo: by the IISS – bombing on Israel/Lebanon border]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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