“Israel has rewritten the book on war and diplomacy. For decades Iran Inc has been patiently building an alliance to strangle Israel to death through hybrid war based on delegitimisation and military encirclement. In a couple of weeks Israel has cut the cord around its neck in a series of devastating blows beyond all expectations. I do not know where this may end but Israel has entirely altered the strategic landscape and opened the door to new diplomatic initiatives. We can only hope this opportunity is taken by the democratic world and Israel’s neighbours.” From a note I wrote to a few friends and family.
Modern war in particular is fought on many fronts: military, diplomatic, economic, public opinion. The war on Israel which Iran initiated following the 1979 coup and violent overthrow of the Shah has been a remarkable story of patient encirclement and a sophisticated strategy of strangulation.
Circumstances were on their side. The Middle East (ME) and the wider ME-North Africa (MENA) region were in a state of disarray, beset by conflict between rival factions and radicalised by fundamentalist Islamic doctrines, both Sunni and Shia, anti-colonialist-anti-capitalist doctrines and Marxist-Fascist Cold War ideologies.
All of these could be weaponised by fanatical theocrats and ambitious warlords, and could find answering echoes within the ranks of wealthy but restless democracies and post-colonial newly-formed states in Africa and elsewhere. The chief enemy was the USA, the major global hegemon of the second half of the 20th century, but within the ME, a proxy enemy was more convenient and considerably more vulnerable: Israel.
Israel had come into existence against the violent opposition of both local Arabs and the wider regional Arab-Muslim population. I’ve touched on that complex history previously (and here), but the bottom line is that the fate of the Palestinian Arabs became the unifying factor around which mutually hostile Arab-Muslim factions could unite. Not only that, but it could be used to mobilise other post-colonial, third-world countries which otherwise would have been fearful of radical Islamist movements.
It also fitted into Soviet Cold War strategy which sought to unify the Third World under the banner of anti-imperialism (only Western imperialism of course). While the USA emerged as the victor in the Cold War, within the victor was implanted deep-seated guilt at Western supremacy, accompanied by Utopian anti-capitalist doctrines. In the messy way history unfolds, this has polarised the USA and other democracies, with social justice progressives on the one hand and liberal-conservative democrats on the other.
This battle of ideas and power has resulted in semi-paralysis within the West. This opened the door to a flood of immigrants and ideologies, both of which undermine the very foundations of what used to be quaintly called Western Civilisation. Israel itself was not immune to this process and the democratic scene in Israel over the past decade or so has become fractured, adding to the deep ethnic and religious divides in the country.
Orchestrated
In the last few decades these trends have consolidated into an anti-Israel coalition involving especially fundamentalist Muslim factions in the MENA region and elsewhere, woke social activists everywhere, populist movements in the global South, and in multinational bodies like the UN. These have been orchestrated by Iran and by the Soviet-China axis, which see the opportunity to counter American power and capture important markets and resources.
While virtually no-one came out of these conflicts smelling like roses, they did coalesce into a clear choice between the messy processes of individual rights within a lawful democratic setting and the supremacy of the collective within an autocratic hierarchy dominated by oligarchs. At the centre of this struggle lay Israel.
Was Israel a tiny nation of socialist pioneers, religious seekers and refugees escaping the meltdown of Europe into war and, ultimately, the Holocaust? Or was it as Iran Inc – aka the Islamist axis – portray Israel: a sinister settler-colonialist state, sponsored by the USA, indulging in apartheid and genocidal actions?
All the facts of history and geography (and commonsense) point to the former, but it was too tempting a target. Arab public opinion unified behind ambitious autocrats could not allow facts to get in the way of constructed reality.
Jews, now called Zionists to mobilise Western opinion, were already suspect in the Arab world as well as in the West. Theological and racial anti-Semitism was embedded in both societies, more especially the latter by the end of the 20th century. The persistence of the Jewish state in the face of Arab violence was an affront to the Arab sense of honour, which could only be assuaged by the elimination of Israel.
The outright Jew-hatred and contempt on the part of the Arab street and its leaders had to be suitably showcased to suit primarily leftwing Western sensibilities. Thus was born the Palestinian problem, the settler-colonial and apartheid narrative and, of course, the spice of genocide liberally sprinkled over every Israeli effort to defend itself from the eliminationist intentions of its enemies.
Boy, was it successful
Considerable money and organisational sophistication went into this stigmatisation campaign, riding piggy-back on the oppressor-oppressed-intersectional social justice movement in the Democratic West. And, boy, was it successful.
Cutting to the present, on 7 October 2023, Israel and the world woke up to a new reality; or, more accurately, a realisation of existing reality. First was the mind-blowing failure of Israel’s famous intelligence apparatus, honed over 75 years of conflict, and the absolute unreadiness of the IDF. Second was the sheer savagery and depravity of the massacre.
As the news of what had been inflicted on Israeli civilians young and old, male and female, filtered through to the public, along with the fact that 240 hostages had been dragged into the hellhole of the Gazan tunnel system, ordinary Israelis froze in horror and rage. Hostage-taking had long been a tactic of the terror groups surrounding Israel. To Israel’s opponents this was a source of ridicule and contempt: Israelis were exchanging hundreds of terrorists for the life or dead body of a single captive, whereas their own population was expected to fight and die for the glory of Allah and the honour of his people.
They were partly right, but they did not understand the contract between the Israeli citizens and the State. In the meantime, it was left to the heroism of individuals to attack the invaders and drive them out. As usual, the attack was first celebrated abroad and in Gaza itself, then denied and then justified. And the vast apparatus of propaganda and misinformation sprang into action.
Post-October 7
Before Israel had struck back, approximately 30 activist groups in the USA were screaming “stop the genocide”. This was aimed at Israel. Foreign leaders arrived in Israel pledging “undying support”, which speedily mutated into “calm down, we need to talk”.
But how does one deal with the reality of 500 + km of tunnels under the urban infrastructure of Gaza, filled to the brim with weapons and booby traps? How does one deal with the fact that these entered schools, mosques, hospitals and ordinary homes? How do you explain that the tunnels were for the terrorists and not the citizens? How do you answer the accusation that UNRWA personnel were clearly aware of these facts and that many of them actually participated directly in the October 7 massacre?
The answer to those questions is you lie, deny, obfuscate and turn up the volume. You focus on every Gazan death, obsessively. You flood the world with pictures. You publish every outrageous Hamas claim at face value, until the truth comes out and you quickly move on to something else. You shriek famine, when tons of aid are getting through and being hijacked by Hamas or other criminals.
Whatever happens you avoid the question as to how Israel is supposed to defend itself against openly genocidal enemies declaring their intention to obliterate it. You ignore the military experts like John Spencer, Richard Kemp and Andrew Fox, who point out that the Gazan terrain is unparalleled in urban warfare and that the Israeli military have achieved non-combatant to combatant mortality figures lower than in any equivalent conflict in modern history.
Yes, we do have to acknowledge and mourn every death and injury suffered by non-combatants (though the dividing line is fuzzy) in this war, even while we know that Hamas’s design is to offer its own civilians as sacrifices on the altar of ultimate victory. Let me state bluntly that the Western supporters involved in perpetuating this “genocidal” narrative are personally complicit in the Hamas strategy against their own citizens.
So to sum up, the last year has been Annus Horribilis for Jews everywhere – not just Israel. The outburst of virulent hatred across the Western world has taken the Jewish community by surprise, but in Israel the feeling was visceral and existential.
Up close and extremely personal
By design, they were surrounded by enemies up close and extremely personal: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, radicalised terrorists throughout the West Bank, Syria, Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen. And in Tehran, the Mullahs and the IRCG were coordinating, funding, training while the USA dithered and appeased. At every step the USA was both enabler and saboteur of a coherent Israeli response and it appeared that the schisms in Israeli society were going to tear it apart from within, just as their enemies had planned.
Tens of thousands of Israelis were displaced from their homes due to constant Hezbollah bombardment. Northern Israel was a ravaged no-go area for civilians, and protesters were on the streets, while the remaining hostages languished in the tunnels with nary a peep from Israel’s allies. The noose was tightening, it seemed, but there were straws in the wind that revealed a different picture.
The prominent historian, Niall Ferguson and his co-author Jay Mens, in an insightful must-read article, have compared Benjamin Netanyahu to Otto Bismarck. Under his watch and despite the obstructionism and internal turmoil the IDF was inexorably clearing out the Hamas resistance in Gaza. Flashes of the old brilliance came back with the targeted elimination of Fouad Shukr in Lebanon and Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, both responsible for many deaths and for orchestrating the assault on Israel’s existence. Pinpoint strikes on the Houthis and on Iran in response to their unprecedented but theatrical missile attack on 13 April underlined Israel’s deterrence capabilities.
Flouted with impunity
But the noose was decisively loosened only in the past 3 weeks or so, first by the extraordinary pager-walkie-talkie-laptop attacks on over 3,000 Hezbollah operatives and supporters, followed by an unrelenting series of pre-emptive and clinical strikes on rocket launchers, weapons depots and the top echelon of the Hezbollah fighting forces in Lebanon. And, just recently, Israel initiated a limited ground invasion into southern Lebanon mainly in order to compel compliance with UN resolution 1701 which Hezbollah has flouted with impunity till now.
Since South Africans are not going to hear this from our own media, I’m quoting the words of John Spencer who leads the Urban Warfare Studies at West Point, the US Military Academy:
“Israel has once again proven that when attacked, it can achieve the impossible. Its actions in Gaza since Oct. 7, despite Hamas’ 15 years of fortification and preparation, 385 miles of tunnels, a strategy of human shields, the hostage crisis, and simultaneous attacks from Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis – are unprecedented. No other army in the world has done this, and I believe none is capable of it. Some might interpret this as Israeli weakness. As a military analyst, I see it as a testament to Israel’s unique capabilities.“
As I write we’re awaiting further developments targeting the nerve centre of Iran Inc, namely, Iran itself. It is impossible to predict the future but it’s clear that Israel’s actions, particularly in the past month, have dramatically altered the strategic and diplomatic landscape in the ME. The fundamental military weakness of the Islamist noose has been dramatically exposed and provides the platform for consolidation of this superiority and for opening the door to diplomatic initiatives.
What may these diplomatic initiatives be? Firstly, to decisively put to bed the idea that militarily and economically weak authoritarian regimes can impose their will on powerful and successful democracies by triggering the norms and values of their opponents. If the USA and Israel’s supposed allies use Israel’s military victories to pressurise it into premature bargaining and concessions, they will undo the heroic achievements of the IDF and the Israeli people.
Tried-and-tested techniques
Their opponents in Iran Inc. understand this fully and will try to rebuild their own capabilities and reputation in the region and exploit the anti-Western narrative in the activist, anti-Semitic and useful idiot communities of the Western democracies. They will do this via the tried-and-tested techniques of threat, stigmatisation, cries of victimhood and disinformation campaigns. To allow this to succeed will be disastrous for the region and globally, and only time will tell whether the democracies can find the spine to resist.
In such discussions, we often get told that Western democracies behave no differently from their fanatical and authoritarian enemies. This has a painful element of truth, and the words of Kant still ring true: “out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made”. But the abyss between noisy, often nasty democracies and the dark pit of the fundamentalist, bloody totalitarian societies is unbridgeable, as attested to by the one-way stream of migration.
To survive, the democracies will need enormous insight and a strong will, both in their leadership and their population. Israel has shown how the combination of inspired leadership and a skilled and determined population can defy the odds. It’s been a high-wire heart-stopping performance, but they’re still there. Let’s hope that Israel and its many allies across the world can manage the next phase to usher in a peaceful and prosperous Middle East.
That will prove even more difficult than the trial by fire which they’re not yet through. The hostages remain in the tunnels in the meantime, and over 60 000 Israelis are displaced from their homes. Gaza is in ruins, owing to Hamas which lurks in the background waiting for its opportunity to arise again, and the Mullahs of Iran are clinging to power.
I could go on, but nevertheless the door has been opened slightly. Israel and the West must press on. In the words of Douglas Murray,
“Sometimes you need war to make peace. Sometimes there is a price to pay for trying to finish the work of Adolf Hitler.”
That price is yet to be fully paid.
[Image: Taylor Brandon on Unsplash]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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