Last week, for the first time ever, Botswana elected a new President who was not from the party that has ruled since independence in 1966.
That alone is a watershed for the country. But the election is also a marker for the country because the poll went smoothly, there was no protest from the ruling party at its loss of power, and the transition was apparently flawless.
That a new party will take power after all these years boosts the democratic cause in Botswana and throughout southern Africa. It also wipes out residual concerns about a disputed election and the problems of a transition of power in Botswana, for so long under the rule of a dominant party.
In contrast to what happened in Botswana last week, the Mozambique elections are widely viewed as stolen in the eyes of many official election observers and, judging by the mass protests, a large section of the population. This is a disaster for the country and the region.
Last week, Mozambique slid further into post-election chaos as Frelimo cracked down on nationwide protests and a strike against what independent observer teams have said is a massively fraudulent poll. So far, 13 people have been shot dead and many injured in the protests over the elections.
Flawed elections
Mozambique and Zimbabwe repeatedly hold flawed elections, and the chance of a change in government in these countries is very unlikely. That forces the wider region to pay for the loss of confidence, due to fears of instability. It also means that we have to take up migrants fleeing poverty from these failing countries.
A big part of the problem is that even in the face of massive electoral fraud, countries in the region have refused, even at the least, to call these governments out for stealing elections.
The election in Mozambique took place on 9 October, but the election results were only released after a suspiciously long time, on October 24th. These showed Daniel Chapo, the presidential candidate of the ruling Frelimo party, with 70.7 percent of the vote. The official result showed the largest opposition party, Podemos, with 20.4 percent of the vote, Renamo with 5.8 percent and the Mozambique Democratic Movement with 2.2 percent. The poll was widely at odds with the informal polling done by the opposition parties.
Opposition parties, journalists, and election observer missions point to voters in opposition strongholds not being able to register, ballot stuffing, and alterations to released counts at polling stations.
Venâncio Mondlane, who ran for President as an independent but with the backing of Podemos, has been forced to flee the country after assassination attempts. Mondlane’s lawyer, who was preparing a court case to fight the election result, and Paulo Guambe, a Podemos candidate, were shot dead by gunmen just before the results were announced.
Mozambique’s election campaigns have for years been characterised by assassinations and intimidation, and on the day of polling there has usually been extensive vote-rigging. Despite this, the ANC government has always been one of the first to congratulate Frelimo on its victory.
More prepared
But this time, the opposition parties seem to be a lot more prepared to launch a campaign against a stolen victory. They have launched a series of protests and strikes across the country. A week-long strike will culminate in a march tomorrow (Thursday) in Maputo, which could be a test of popular support and the ability and willingness of Mozambique’s security forces to crack down on the opposition.
With its own security forces stretched by the protests, Frelimo is relying on Rwandan troops, officially in the country to fight the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, to quell some of the protests. Their use to quell domestic protest does raise the question as to whether Frelimo trusts its own security forces to maintain control.
Despite switching off networks and blocking access to social media, Frelimo has not been able to control the news flow. Controls can be bypassed, with virtual private networks making it increasingly difficult for Frelimo and other authoritarian governments to control a narrative.
Stand-off
Ending the stand-off over the legitimacy of the election result will be difficult. The Constitutional Council, acting as a Court, has ordered the government to show the vote calculations in most provinces. But the body is packed with Frelimo supporters, and might only order minor changes in the result rather than entirely overturn the poll. And the offer of talks by the opposition on forming a government of national unity have been rejected.
Without a concerted regional push to ensure proper elections in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, it is unlikely that these governments will move. Their rulers know that they will be thrown out and they have too much at stake to give way. But it could become increasingly difficult for them to continue to rig their polls.
Toward the end of this month, Namibia, which has been ruled by the South West African People’s Organisation (SWAPO) since independence in 1990, will hold an election. Although its majority has been decreasing, SWAPO is expected to remain in power.
But what if there was a surprise, as in Botswana? Would SWAPO give way if it lost?
If SWAPO is defeated, it would be two regional elections in a year which have seen the eviction of the liberation parties from power. That would send a powerful message to other countries with one-party-dominant systems.
At our elections in May, the ANC lost its majority and without a whimper admitted defeat and set up a government of national unity. These developments are all highly positive for change. They could make governments a lot more accountable, or at least give improved hope that the big problems can be dealt with. This sort of change also puts pressure on rulers in other countries who just won’t go, no matter what.
Reluctant to leave
But it is not only liberation parties that are being challenged. It has sometimes been difficult to remove parties which have come to power long after the defeat of the party of liberation. Three years ago, Zambian President Edgar Lungu lost power, but was reluctant to leave. Ultimately, in the face of an overwhelming victory by Hakainde Hichilema’s party, Lungu left office, providing another positive example of a transition of power. What helped was that Hichilema enjoyed an overwhelming victory that would have taken an immense amount of rigging to overturn.
The definitive movement throughout the region is toward far more competitive politics, with many more parties and a rapidly-growing younger voter base that does not remember the liberation struggles. Around 45 percent of the population in Mozambique are under 14, and in Zimbabwe, 38 percent are under this age.
Younger voters tend to have a far higher rate of abstention from the polls, but they are also more demanding about jobs and cracking down on privileges and corruption, and they may go for populist solutions.
It might take some time, but the days of long-ruling failed governments in our region are numbered.
As it is elsewhere, demography is destiny.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
If you like what you have just read, support the Daily Friend
Photo by Beate Vogl: https://www.pexels.com/photo/pin-on-map-19963962/