Recently in the City of Tshwane there was a political upheaval, with the removal of Cilliers Brink of the Democratic Alliance as Mayor and his replacement by his deputy, Nasiphi Moya from ActionSA.
Moya’s election was backed by the ANC and EFF, along with a series of minority parties. The move was spearheaded by Panyazi Lesufi and Herman Mashaba, after ActionSA agreed to support the election of the Mayor of Johannesburg, Dada Morero, in exchange for taking the position of Speaker in Johannesburg as well. In Tshwane, Moya leads the political executive which is made up of a majority of ANC councillors who are members of the Mayoral Committee, along with the EFF.
The motivation that Mashaba used for betrayal of the initial multi-party coalition in Tshwane was that there was no service delivery taking place in townships in Tshwane. This claim was false and somewhat disturbing, seeing that Mashaba was indirectly stating that his own Deputy Mayor and MMC who served in the executive at the time were effectively failing. Nonetheless he got what he wanted, removed Brink, collapsed a functioning coalition and now he is all in on Moya in Tshwane.
The ANC were heavily split on the decision to back Moya and remain so. Splits between national and provincial leadership were clear on this matter. Locally the regional structures of the ANC were also weary of this move. Policy in the ANC is that the party seeks to govern in places where it is the largest party in a coalition. Yet there was such an eagerness to remove Brink that this was largely cast aside in following the short-term goal of his removal.
No sooner was Moya elected then the announcement was made that there would be a heavy focus on visiting rural areas and townships with the new political executive. A programme was put together of public meetings and engagements in various wards in the city in which ANC councillors were elected. In fact, the programme itself, this 100-day focus, absolutely ignores the urban areas of the city in its totality. There is not a single public engagement that has been planned for these areas. It totally discriminates against the ratepayers in these suburbs. There hasn’t even been an attempt to speak to or reach out to these residents.
This is interesting for a number of reasons. It was residents from the urban areas that initially brought in ActionSA’s votes. It seems that the party has now totally lost touch with this constituency. This is clear if one examines how poorly the party did in the national election, barely scraping over 1% of the vote. They are now pivoting desperately to focus on the more rural or township votes in the country: namely ANC and EFF territory.
A scan of Mashaba’s and ActionSA’s social media accounts shows an almost fanatical devotion to Tshwane right now. ActionSA communicates on virtually nothing else except the occasional update from Parliament. It has all but forgotten its caucus in Ekurhuleni which is totally ineffective. Things in Johannesburg, where they are effectively in government with the ANC, are so bad that they dare not draw attention to their involvement. The party has abandoned trying to promote the work of any branches or leadership outside of Gauteng, if they still exist or are operational.
While ActionSA is trying to position itself as a kind of opposition in Parliament, Mashaba is continually praising its relationship with the EFF and ANC locally as “like-minded” parties in Tshwane.
But herein lies the challenge for the ANC. These public meetings are taking place in their wards where the political leadership are visiting. They are happily mobilising their communities and members to be addressed by an ActionSA Mayor, and effectively bringing their voting constituency to a party which seeks to actively take that constituency away from them. It is ActionSA’s direct strategy, to break into these wards and get votes.
Consider this metaphor. The DA has a particular pond of voters that it fishes in, and the ANC has its pond of voters. Now over time, the DA would attempt to cast into the ANC’s pond and vice versa. But both parties have solid voting bases which are distinguishable on various fronts. However, now the ANC has effectively put ActionSA onto a boat and is steering it, while ActionSA is throwing out nets into the ANC’s pond of voters, hoping to draw in as many as possible.
Actually it is more complicated. With ActionSA effectively abandoning the urban vote, the ANC in Tshwane is not only carrying it into the rural constituencies but is taking along the EFF as well. Effectively, over time the ANC is going to erode its own voter share by championing and promoting political parties that are fishing directly in its pond. Of course there is still another player to emerge as well, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), which has yet to start making big moves in Gauteng for local government. Their mobilisation is going to start soon.
The ANC was so blinded by their own short-term gains of removing Brink that it has failed to take into account the long-term political consequences of its actions. It is unwittingly exposing its voter base to alternatives who actively seek to entice those voters. The ANC is making these parties more palatable to its own voters, which could likely find it giving up a massive voter share in the coming local government election.
[Photo: Screenshot/State of the Nation]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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