We live in a fractured and deeply polarized world, with growing conflict zones rapidly spiralling out of control.
At the same time our multilateral institutions are under threat, with great power rivalry rending many of these asunder, or incapacitating them to a point where they cannot meaningfully respond to the challenges posed.
Beneath this cauldron lies sluggish growth, rendering many in the developed and developing world susceptible to the allure of protectionist nationalism, ethnic chauvinism, religious fundamentalism and authoritarianism. In a world where workers worry about their next salary, it is easy for unscrupulous politicians to blame China or believe that the imposition of tariffs would arrest poverty and make a nation great again.
In truth, despite the attacks on multilateralism and attempts to return to mercantilism and gunboat diplomacy, the world is far more interconnected than it may initially appear to be. Put simply, it will be difficult for any one country – no matter how powerful it appears to be – to disentangle itself from the myriad strands that bind us.
World of discord
In this world of discord stands the G20: a forum representing multilateralism and bringing together the biggest economies in the world to collectively discuss the most urgent challenges confronting humanity. Nineteen sovereign countries, the European Union and the African Union have opted to come together in an attempt to transcend narrow national interests and to collectively work on their common interests.
In a world ruptured by division and rivalry, the G20 represents both the Global North and Global South. It represents countries which are perceived as ideological adversaries and strategic rivals. Still, through the G20, they attempt to find consensus on various issues, from poverty to mobilizing financial resources for the green transition.
One indication of just how important the G20 is lies in the fact that it represents 85% of the global economy. Much of this economic clout of the G20 is accounted for by the growth of emerging economies. This, perhaps, is one of the reasons that the G20 has been of late hosted by emerging economies – India, Brazil, and now South Africa. South Africa took over the presidency from Brazil on 1 December 2024, and the G20 Summit is scheduled to take place in Johannesburg in 2025, when the baton passes to the United States to chair the G20.
While South Africa’s economy is minuscule compared with that of other members of the G20, accounting for a tiny 0.6 percent of its GDP, the country’s presidency of the G20 is important for a number of reasons.
Fundamental principle
Firstly, since South Africa’s transition from apartheid in 1994, multilateralism has been a fundamental principle of its foreign policy, with the country playing a fundamental role in establishing the African Union and being a founding signatory to the Rome Statute which brought the International Criminal Court into being.
Secondly, South Africa’s economic ties straddle East-West and North-South divisions. Consider here that after Washington, Pretoria is host to the second-largest number of foreign missions in the world.
Thirdly, this is the first time that the G20 is hosted by an African state. This is a highly symbolic development. It speaks to Africa’s inclusion in global deliberations. For its part, Pretoria seeks to use its presidency of the G-20 to amplify the African voice especially around issues of poverty, unemployment and development, as well as to promote greater equity in global governance.
However, South Africa is currently experiencing severe headwinds in hosting the event. Some key players will be unable or unwilling to attend the Johannesburg Summit. Given the ICC arrest warrant for him, Russian President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to attend the gathering in person, as occurred during the BRICS Johannesburg Summit in 2023.
More worrying, however, is the absence of the USA at the Summit. Both President Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio have made it clear that they will not be attending the planned G20 Summit in Johannesburg. This followed Trump’s executive order which freezes all aid to South Africa.
Immediate catalyst
While the immediate catalyst was the Expropriation Act which allows for the state to take unused land without compensation if it is in the public interest, there are several reasons why deteriorating bilateral relations predate the Trump administration. They include Pretoria’s proximity to Iran and Hamas, our taking Israel to the International Court of Justice, the country’s stance on the Russian-Ukraine conflict, as well as South Africa’s growing proximity to China.
The latter was seen most recently with the Taiwan Liaison Office being asked to move from Pretoria to Johannesburg. For years, US envoys have been complaining about their inability to meet with their South African counterparts. In an article in 2009, Merle Lipton referred to the anti-Western imperialism which lay at the root of South African foreign policy.
This, of course, has long roots. The ANC during the Cold War had deeper ties with the Eastern Bloc than with the West, and approaches its foreign policy largely in that ideological frame. The Cold War however is over.
What is needed from the ANC is a more nuanced and sophisticated position informed by the country’s national interests and a clear understanding of its relative strength on the world stage. Brazil and India, two fellow members of BRICS, have demonstrated such sophistication on the international stage.
Sadly, South Africa’s diplomats are sorely lacking here. This is possibly the consequence of cadre deployment: people being appointed on the basis of their political connections as opposed to their skill sets.
Of course, our diplomats’ cause is not assisted by the likes of Minister of Mineral Resources and ANC Chair Gwede Mantashe urging African countries to withhold their minerals from the US, or ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula declaring, “America must not come into the affairs of a sovereign country like South Africa. We must fight and defend our country against the madness of Donald Trump”.
No grasp
These ANC leaders demonstrate no grasp of economics, power or diplomacy. At the same time, Pretoria is attempting to heal the rift by sending a delegation to the US to meet with lawmakers and put its case forward. These mixed signals need to stop if this crisis is to have any possibility of being resolved.
But to be fair, the problem is not entirely South Africa’s. The US misunderstands the Expropriation Act and also seems to see Pretoria from a domestic viewpoint. Marco Rubio, in his statement saying he will not be coming for the G20 Summit, was critical of the theme South Africa had chosen for its G20 Presidency – Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability. He equated this with Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion – which the Republican Administration has taken issue with domestically.
However, the theme Pretoria has chosen was informed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and by the agenda of the African Union. Washington may also be overplaying its hand – its stance might well weaken its international position. France, Germany, Italy and the European Union have all stood by South Africa’s G20 presidency and spoken about their common attachment to multilateralism, the rule of law and non-sexism in South Africa.
Chinese Ambassador Wu made it clear that the US boycott of the G20 was not just an affront to South Africa, but to the whole of Africa, given the fact that this is the first time it is being held on African soil.
The absence of the world’s biggest economy at the G20 would be a huge challenge for this important global forum. Moreover, as the US is part of the troika and is expected to host it next, it is imperative that our global commons comes first.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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Image: Grok