President Donald Trump is on a path to upending the world order of international security and trade that has evolved since World War II. He has created immense global uncertainty and anxiety, which raises the risk of rash and precipitous decisions. And he risks pushing the US and the world into a period of trade wars, high inflation and recession.
In the past few days, he has suspended all US military aid to Ukraine and imposed 25 percent tariffs on US neighbours, Canada and Mexico. Last week he had a fight with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who dared to challenge him in public. US foreign aid programmes, including those for HIV/AIDS treatment have been suspended for 90 days, although there are exemptions from the cut-off.
A lot of the turmoil might be due to Trump-style shock and awe at this stage. But Trump may well leave the US with few friends and greatly reduced international influence.
What does Trump really want?
The Trump rhetoric is to “Make America Great Again” without paying the heavy price that this entails. He is unpredictable and mercurial, surrounded by praise-singers, so there are immense problems in really knowing what he wants. Perhaps it is an error to assume anything about Trump other than that he is the ultimate showman, obsessed with TV ratings and tax cuts.
A charitable explanation would be that one of his foremost aims is to cut taxes and ensure the US does not take an unfair burden in its international obligations. He wants to cut spending to reduce the US government deficit and the ballooning debt, which if allowed to grow at its present rate would cripple the US economy. But tax cuts, even with spending cuts, might widen the deficit. Tariffs will increase prices and raise inflation. Tighter immigration laws will mean a rise in the price of labour. Higher inflation will mean higher interest rates and contribute to a global economic slowdown.
A benign view is that Trump wants to throw multiple initiatives into the air and see where they land. Another aim might be to shock countries into taking initiatives. He wants to shock Zelenskyy into doing a deal with Putin, the Europeans into spending far more on defence, and Arab countries into supporting Gaza’s reconstruction.
One clear Trump aim is to get Russian President Vladimir Putin on his side. But ending the present war in Ukraine is no guarantee that Russia will not rearm and forgo its alliance with China.
To defend Taiwan
Peace in Ukraine and a Middle East settlement would allow the US to be far less concerned about two conflicts. If all that is in place, this would allow the US to build up its forces in the region to defend Taiwan and prevent China from pursuing its ambitions. The US cannot possibly fight a three-front or even a two-front war.
Earlier this week, Trump warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be “catastrophic”, but he has not categorically said the US will defend Taiwan. There were strong words from Trump after a Taiwanese chip-maker said it would make a mammoth investment in the US, but what comes afterwards?
To appease Putin, Trump might be willing to sacrifice the alliance with Europe. The deal he is pushing for is a US share of Ukrainian rare earth minerals in exchange for peace. He has said there is no security guarantee in giving the US access to rare earth minerals. Besides, Trump says it is up to the Europeans alone to give Ukraine a security guarantee.
Realistically, Ukraine cannot achieve its three big demands – a return of Crimea, a Russian withdrawal from areas of the Donbas as well as reparations. Ukraine can’t sign a peace deal without an explicit security guarantee. Trump’s deal would mean Putin gets territory, his pride, and an easing of internal political and economic pressures, an end to US sanctions, and will not necessarily end the alliance with China. It would offer Putin a lifeline by saving the Russian economy, which is now in dire straits due to the war and sanctions.
The Europeans have in the space of a week concluded that they can no longer rely on the US to defend it unconditionally. While they say politely that they will take a Ukraine peace plan to Washington, the Europeans have now seized the peace effort from Washington. They just don’t trust Trump and are making other arrangements. Perhaps that is what he wanted anyway. Washington under Trump is an unreliable ally.
Significantly differ
It just might be possible, although difficult for Europe, to help defend Ukraine without the US. A German think tank, the Kiel Institute, has calculated that since the Russian invasion three years ago, Europe has provided close to 50% of government support for Ukraine. The US has provided short of 43% since the invasion in 2022. These numbers significantly differ from those claimed by Trump.
Reduced reliance on US weapon systems will take the Europeans a good decade or more, and many trillions of Euros. The shift to guns from butter ̶ health, welfare, and foreign aid ̶ will be politically costly for governments across Europe, but they just might regard it as key to their existence.
The view that middle-ranking powers such as South Africa, Brazil, Malaysia and Turkey are well positioned to navigate the storms is not well founded. Trump only seems to have time for the great world powers.
Pushing ahead with SA’s accusation of genocide against Israel in the International Court of Justice and forming a “Hague group” will bring Pretoria directly into Trump’s firing line. An end to the special trade preferences under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and funding for HIV/AIDS treatment is all but done.
And now that SA is in the firing line, and President Cyril Ramaphosa says “we will not be bullied”, Trump might convince Beijing and Moscow to toe his line on South Africa. On Trump’s SA list are a withdrawal of the ICJ case and a repeal of the Expropriation Act and empowerment legislation, If not, Joel Pollak, the likely Trump appointee as US Ambassador to Pretoria, says there might be targeted sanctions on ANC high-ups. And in this changed world, why should Europe rush to our defence?
Freedom to manoeuvre
No country can afford to consider Trump a force that will pass. The world needs to make plans for Trump and beyond, on the basis of what it has seen over the past few weeks. Trump has about 47 months left in office, and has a compliant Congress and Supreme Court. He has a lot of freedom to manoeuvre. There is a good chance that Vice President JD Vance might be elected President in 2028, particularly if the Democrats remain unable to put forward a viable centrist candidate for President.
The best hope is that this is all early days in the Trump administration and that what we have seen so far is mostly for shock effect. For the moment, the best advice for governments is to stay well clear of Trump’s bad side, while making their own plans that rely little on US backing.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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