The ANC showed yesterday that it is desperate to dilute the role of the DA in any future power-sharing arrangement. It hopes it can more effectively get its way in a wider coalition.
That was the clear intention of a plan outlined by the ANC Secretary General, Fikile Mbalula, after a meeting of the party’s National Working Committee, which brings together the ANC top cadres for urgent matters.
After the budget impasse and stand-off with the DA, the ANC now wants to “reset” the GNU by opening it to all parties: something it has threatened to do since its formation after last year’s elections.
The ANC’s appeal for a new broader coalition does not mean that it will get what it wants. After the reset, it could be stuck with rats-and-mice parties demanding concession upon concession. And the ANC could be stuck with a very narrow margin over the 201 votes that it needs to win votes of confidence and supply and remain in power. There are parties that might view this as a chance to put the knife into the ANC and refuse to participate.
Significantly, what this offer of a reset means is that the ANC will not play into the DA’s hands and kick it out of the GNU, but the blue party is likely to have fewer Cabinet seats in any new arrangement. If the ANC kicked the DA out of the coalition it would be seen by many in the electorate as the wrecker of the GNU.
In a recent poll conducted for the Brenthurst Foundation, a sample of voters gave the GNU an approval rating of 57 percent, with a margin of error of three percent. South African voters generally do not want to see squabbling among parties, which they see as petty point-scoring rather than solving problems for the national good. Voters might punish the DA if it declined a role in the “reset” GNU, however underhand the ANC’s behaviour might appear.
It would be far better for the DA to protest about its perhaps diminished role, and fight for ANC accountability, but it must, at least, give the “reset” a try. Although the ANC might hate the DA for this, it can still be an opposition from within and keep its option to quit for more dire circumstances.
The ANC will hope that with a reduced share of Cabinet posts, the DA will walk away. This tactic is tantamount to what the lawyers call “constructive dismissal” and puts the DA in a tight spot.
For the moment, it is best for the DA not to quit in a huff. The best advice for the DA is to wait and see, and only quit the “reset” GNU if there is a really compelling reason to do so. Keep the voters on your side, even if you are short-changed.
Mbalula says the ANC will be talking to political parties, business and religious groups about the future of the party. And he admitted that there should have been wider consultations on the budget much earlier.
Is this the softer, gentler ANC that is now open to power-sharing and consultation?
That is most unlikely. It is an attempt to bypass the DA on the budget and much else.
The ANC originally went into the GNU to keep the MK and EFF out. If these parties now accept roles in the coalition, what should the DA do?
The ANC is aware of this situation and the “reset” is in part a ruse to try and engineer a refusal by the DA to participate in the arrangement. There is always the option of pulling out at a later stage and fully explaining the reasons.
If the GNU is so broad, it then becomes an extension of Parliament and justifies DA participation. It will be in Cabinet that national politics is played out and coalitions are formed. And that means the DA has a definite incentive to participate, for the time being. It is in Cabinet that decisions will be made and the opportunities for coalitions to be formed will present themselves.
Our politics have become very fluid. Who would have thought that the DA would be on the same side as MK and the EFF in opposing the proposed VAT rise?
Being in a coalition with the DA deeply irks the ANC. The comrades hate the idea that they are relying on what they portray as a “white party.” They hate the idea that corporate South Africa feels greater reassurance if the DA is in the GNU. That is why President Cyril Ramaphosa hit out at big business interference over the weekend. And that is why Deputy President Paul Mashatile questioned the role of the DA as both opposition and a member of the GNU.
The ANC is worried that the DA tends to manage its Cabinet portfolios with competence and a strong commitment, and can point to tangible results. And also worried that having the DA in the Cabinet allows it to have oversight, with the potential of causing problems.
All that makes the ANC look weak. But then it is weak, with only 40 percent of the vote, and the “reset” attempt to bypass the DA makes it look weaker.
If anything, the past few weeks, since the delay in the Budget speech in February, have shown the party’s inherent inability to reach a deal for a budget that has broader party support. The overriding reason is that the ANC cannot give way, because it will be shown to be weak to its supporters and the wider electorate. It is a power-play for the future of the country. At stake is the wider reform agenda, and even a prospect of reaching some sort of settlement with the Trump administration.
The split over the 0.5 percentage point rise in VAT over DA objections is the immediate reason the GNU is in trouble. In theory, that should be a difference that might be reasonably easy to resolve. After all, the VAT increase will bring in R13.5 billion and cuts of that magnitude or larger could be found. Cut the Black Economic Empowerment premium the government pays in the procurement budget, and even larger amounts could be found. And it could agree to replace “nil compensation” with market-related compensation in the Expropriation Act.
ANC options have now narrowed both domestically and internationally with the Trump administration. It is trying to find ways to hold its position, but is now being racked with uncertainty by the new surprises that emerge. The “reset” will not address its fundamental problems of pitifully slow growth and the pressure from the US.
[Photo: Screenshot/ANC Media briefing]
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