A tripling in support for the Democratic Alliance (DA) among black registered voters – from 5% to 18% – signals “the potential emergence of a politics defined by socio-economic concerns rather than identity-based grievance”, says the Institute of Race Relations (IRR).
This is one of the key findings of the demographically representative survey, conducted between 27 March and 3 April.
A detailed analysis of the poll was given in a webinar (link below) by IRR Head of Strategic Communications Hermann Pretorius.
The results show, for the first time in IRR polling, the DA, at 30.3%, edging past the ANC, at 29.7%.
In a statement, the IRR says the ANC’s proposal to raise VAT has contributed significantly to this shift.
“Following a temporary rebound after the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), ANC support has now fallen below 30%. Where the public perceives the GNU as a vehicle for political moderation and collaboration, the ANC has estranged voters with its continued pursuit of unpopular socio-economic policies, of which the VAT increase has proved a costly example.”
Significantly, the IRR says, support among black voters has surged from 5% to 18%, “demonstrating the political potential for the DA to grow its support across traditional divides by focusing on pragmatic policy issues, especially economic concerns”.