There are signs of an about-turn in a key aspect of the ANC’s foreign policy. Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a one-day visit to South Africa.
The visit was part of the ANC’s attempt to execute an abrupt foreign policy U-turn and distance itself from Russia on, at least, the invasion of Ukraine. Since the invasion three years ago, the ANC has given almost unconditional support to Russia.
The turnabout follows the ANC’s realisation that, with the rising pressure from the Trump administration, it had best rapidly improve relations with Europe. Russia and China are not viable alternatives to the West. With the ANC’s closeness to Russia, China and Iran, relations with much of Europe have been neglected by Pretoria, although Germany is a substantial investor in the country.
However, improving relations with the Europeans may hardly solve SA’s larger foreign policy problems with the US. If relations seriously deteriorate with the US, the Trump administration might impose targeted sanctions on ANC leaders. To ensure these are effective, the US might insist under threat that the Europeans follow suit.
European countries are keen to grab opportunities through gaps provided by the Trump administration to raise their influence on the continent. Another motivation for the Europeans is to reduce the influence of Russia and China in Africa and build global support for Ukraine.
Actions by the Trump administration, including the claim on Greenland and the unilateral rise in US tariffs, make Russia and China seem more predictable. Europe could be worried that much of Africa could increasingly be looking East.
Europe has been quick off the mark in approaching Africa since Trump re-entered the White House. Earlier this year European Union President Ursula von der Leyen came bearing generous gifts when she held a summit with President Cyril Ramaphosa in Cape Town.
It is unclear whether she promised new money on her visit to Cape Town. The European Union has previously said it would make a large contribution to SA’s transition to renewable energy. But she said there would be investments in new vaccine production facilities as part of a financing package of short of €5 billion. Nevertheless, the message was, be our friends and we will make it worthwhile.
For the ANC, the benefit of closer ties with Europe is that this would present a partial alternative to a testy relationship with the US. But the reality is that the trade benefits will not make up for those that are likely to be permanently lost with the end of our trade preferences with the US, under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. Europe has created all sorts of barriers for African agricultural imports, and is unlikely to give up on these. And it is also intent on punishing us for the high carbon content of our exports.
But the Europeans will be a lot softer on the issues which irk the US, such as the Expropriation Act and the ANC International Court of Justice case against Israel.
Nevertheless, the Europeans do have their precondition for any improvement in relationships. It is crucial for the ANC to reach out to Ukraine and keep Russia at a distance.
The European Union, except Hungary, is united behind Ukraine, and Zelensky’s SA visit was tantamount to a precondition to improve relations with European capitals. It views Russia as an existential threat to Europe and is making its own defence plans that rely substantially less than previously on the US.
The ANC has long needed a Zelensky visit to help in giving some credence to its claims of neutrality between Russia and Ukraine and in world affairs. And Ukraine, seeing the chance to moderate the views of a Russian ally and of prising South Africa away from Russia, seized the chance of a visit.
What the ANC will have to do to keep the Europeans happy is unclear. At every chance the ANC boasts about its close ties to Russia. And even on the week of Zelensky’s visit, the South African National Defence Force page in Facebook showed photos of a visit by Russian officers.
Europe is building up its defences against Russia. The ANC is faced with a direct choice: either have Europe or Russia as a partner.
The sudden change in the world order with the Trump administration in Washington has upended the ANC’s easy ride in foreign policy. The ANC has now been forced to make clear choices. There is no more room for the claim of neutrality, maintaining close ties with Russia, China, and Iran, while expecting an indulgence from Europe and the US. Even Europe has now forced the ANC to make clear policy choices.
Much about President Donald Trump is difficult to read, as we never know whether his plays are opening gambits or final demands. After a disastrous initial meeting in the White House with Zelensky, Trump is now a lot colder toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, and seemingly warm to Ukraine. There is no guarantee that Trump’s stance will hold, but SA’s reaching out to Zelensky just might help the ANC to ease relations with the administration in Washington.
Even under Trump, the US will play a key role in Africa. The US has been brokering a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Over the weekend the foreign ministers of the two countries signed an agreement in Washington in front of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to come up with a draft peace deal by the end of this week. With Rwanda accusing South Africa of having sided with forces from the DRC, this is not a deal SA could have brokered. Nevetheless, it could have been useful to Pretoria if Rubio had at least consulted SA in public on the deal.
The turnaround on Ukraine is the safest option for Pretoria, but it won’t guarantee that there will not soon be a showdown with the US. Washington seems intent on getting what it wants from the ANC on foreign and internal policy, and time might be running out for South Africa. If members of the ANC faced targeted sanctions it would make life extremely difficult for them.
The differences between the US and SA cannot be resolved by sweet-talk from Ramaphosa’s special envoy to the US, Mcebisi Jonas, or by appointing an Afrikaner ambassador. There will have to be a backdown from Pretoria on the big issues.
Charging “misinformation” by AfriForum in Washington that there is a genocide of white farmers in South Africa and that no property has been seized won’t do the job. There are a high number of attacks on farmers of all races in South Africa, and the Expropriation Act does allow for expropriation without compensation, the equivalent of seizure. On foreign policy, South Africa has entrenched its position by refusing to withdraw the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. It has now given way on Ukraine and just might give way on maintaining close relations with Russia, China and Iran.
Engineering political backdowns is always tricky, but that is what politics is often about.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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