The arrival in the US earlier this week of 49 Afrikaners, who have been granted refugee status, was a slap in the face for the ANC.
The Trump administration, with its eye on political theatre, has been out to find ways to teach the ANC a lesson.
While the Afrikaner “refugees” fear persecution in SA, a condition to be granted US refugee status, there are probably more deserving cases in the world for this status.
The granting of refugee status is enormously symbolic of a US move to show the ANC the Trump administration’s extreme disapproval. More severe actions are likely to be on the way.
Even if only a few Afrikaners really want to leave because they feel discriminated against and fear violence, this reflects poorly upon the government. The departure of the new Trekkers raises questions about whether the country can really claim to be a modern, equal-opportunity democratic society, if a sizeable minority feel this way. It also implies that there are others who are just as scared about the future, but can’t leave.
This lays down an immense challenge for the ANC, which cannot be fought off with claims of hurt innocence and a disinformation campaign by opponents of transformation.
Meeting
So, Ramaphosa’s meeting with Trump at the White House next week holds out as many risks as it does positive opportunities. Ramaphosa is fortunate to have been given the chance for talks. The alternative would be for the US to simply withdraw the African Growth and Opportunity trade preferences and impose targeted sanctions on the ANC elite without attempting to reach a deal.
We are being given what is likely to be a last chance by the US.
There is the risk for South Africa of a ‘Zelensky’ moment, in which Ramaphosa is taken to task before the international press in the Oval Office. That could lead to another botched moment in South Africa’s attempt to reach some sort of deal with Trump.
Former Ambassador to the US Ebrahim Rasool called the US a nasty imperialist power and got kicked out. Clearly, Ramaphosa is having problems in finding a cadre even moderately well-disposed toward the US as our ambassador.
It would also help the ANC if they could come up with better arguments, but they can’t. The best defence Ramaphosa and the ANC can come up with now is to say that the claims of discrimination against Afrikaners in SA are a false narrative.
“It’s a fringe grouping that does not have a lot of support, that is anti-transformation and anti-change, that would actually prefer to see South Africa go back to apartheid type of policies,” Ramaphosa was quoted as saying by News24 about the 49 Afrikaner trekkers to the US.
We don’t know if the trekkers are all anti-transformation and want a return to apartheid. Many who emigrate from SA are not anti-transformation, but want to ensure a secure future for their kids, which they just cannot see under the ANC.
From the photos of the 49 at the airport, they appeared to be a younger generation with children.
No opportunities
Most probably, they do not see opportunities for themselves and their children because the economy is barely growing and it is difficult to find everyone a job. And they are worried that their children will not be able to get a decent education and jobs, because of affirmative action and big business wanting to raise their empowerment scores to obtain government contracts, (or just look good).
And with the passage of the regulations under the Employment Equity Amendment Act with its tight race quotas for companies with more than 50 employees, the new Trekkers know that opportunities will be further restricted. Like many others, they are worried about how the Expropriation Act, which allows all property to be seized without compensation, will be used. And they are also worried about crime and violence and the ineffectiveness of the police force, a concern which most of us share.
Trump’s statement that seizures of white-owned farmland and a white genocide are ongoing is not true. But legislation does allow property seizures, and there is a frightening level of violent crime in this country which affects all of us. We do not know the precise number of farm attacks and murders, because police statistics do not present these in a separate category. To counter the attitude of the US, the President might at least make an effort to ensure there is accurate reporting, and categories are established for farm attacks and murders.
Even though the extension of refugee status may be an opening gambit for negotiation and political theatre for his support base, this will certainly hurt the ANC.
Possible deal
Trump might have agreed to the meeting to hear out Ramaphosa on a possible deal. But the ANC has pretty much ruled this out, with claims about a false narrative by anti-transformation forces. The ANC points to no land seizures, and says the Expropriation Act is part of a constitutional process to redress racially skewed land ownership and there is no white genocide. South Africa says it launched the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel because of our concern about human rights. And of course the claim is that we are neutral on our stance between the great powers.
This could all culminate in a Zelensky-type moment.
Ramaphosa, threatened by growing ANC internal ructions with the start of the campaign of Deputy President Paul Mashatile to take over, cannot give the US concessions. The best deal Trump would probably want is the withdrawal of the ICJ case, real South African neutrality, and an end to the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion-type laws which he so abhors. This is just not something Ramaphosa can deliver and remain President.
Second prize for Trump might be an end to empowerment regulations and racial quotas for all US companies investing in South Africa, a stop to all land expropriation, credible South African neutrality, and a toning-down of anti-US rhetoric by the ANC. In addition, South Africa might at least reappoint an ambassador to Israel, and if there is a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, withdraw its case.
The alternative is targeted sanctions on the ANC elite, which the Europeans might also be compelled by the US to apply. It is not Trump’s style to allow the ANC to play for time and drag out talks and maybe reforms. Trump is forcing the ANC to make some quick decisions which it thought it would never have to make.
The views of the writers are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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Image: G. S. Smithard (1873–1919); J. R. Skelton (1865–1927), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons