President Donald Trump may yet fundamentally change South African politics. He has drawn our attention and that of the world to the very high crime rate and the prospect of land seizures.
And his close friend, Elon Musk, just might soon have some success in forcing a change in black empowerment regulations which have prevented him from investing without giving away a 30 percent stake in the venture.
There was no fundamental “reset” of US relations with South Africa last week, when Trump met President Cyril Ramaphosa. After leaving doubt as to whether he will attend the G20 meeting in Johannesburg in November, Trump has now said he will come. That is a good sign for Ramaphosa, but many tough foreign and domestic policy issues remain on the table between the US and South Africa.
Clearly Trump is prepared to listen to Ramaphosa, at least for the moment, but he wants answers on the killing of white farmers. The Trump administration does not like the overall trajectory of our politics and wants to make the ANC accountable for some of its deepest failures, like crime. For the first time since 1994, a great power is prepared to speak out very loudly about what is going wrong in SA.
It is unclear where things were left after the public meeting in the Oval Office and the private talks between Trump and Ramaphosa that followed. Ramaphosa’s office says they are pleased that the SA delegation was able to get a message across and teams from both countries are working on a deal.
Just before the lights were turned down in the Oval Office to show Malema chanting “Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer,” Trump said: “We have thousands of stories talking about it (the genocide of white farmers), and it has to be responded to.”
He is not telling Ramaphosa to do anything but is waiting for a response.
“What would you like President Ramaphosa to do about the situation we have just seen on the screen?” Trump was asked by a journalist.
“I don’t know,” Trump replied. “White South Africans are fleeing because of the violence and the racist laws. You ask what I would like to do, I don’t know.”
No option
What really matters is that Ramaphosa has no option but to respond if he wants a reset in relations, and that high crime, the law that allows expropriation without compensation, and empowerment have now been thrust to front and centre of the national political agenda.
In all their scenario preparations for the meeting, the South Africa delegation should have better anticipated a set play in the Oval Office. They should have been able to come up with far better answers on the allegations of a genocide of white farmers. As Trump slapped down a wad of articles on what he said were farm murders, Ramaphosa should have done the same with an independent report on farm killings.
Trump is demanding accountability, and there will be no reset without answers. There are also local consequences. Seeing Ramaphosa being made accountable by a foreign leader might not bring out love for President and country in South Africa, but rather a response like, “I have been thinking about that as well.”
Trump has unlocked three important areas that have been blocking SA’s progress as they are key to ensuring investor confidence so we can become a successful modern economy.
Last week’s White House meeting could be the spark that ignites new domestic momentum in tackling crime and scrapping the Expropriation Act and BEE regulations. Repeated polling by the Institute of Race Relations shows that unemployment is the big issue, but crime is also a big concern.
South Africa has the third highest rate of homicide, defined as intentional murder, in the world, according to the most recent comparative figures produced by the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime. At 42 per 100,000 people for the 2024/25 financial year our murder rate is astronomically high. While there has been a slight reduction in “contact crimes,” which include murder, there, significant reductions are absent.
Genocide
Any finding of genocide of white farmers is most unlikely. But public discussion about farm murders has not been helped by the police merging reporting on these homicides with all such crimes in 2007. This alone has been a cause for alarm and suspicion that a genocide is underway. The Transvaal Agricultural Union collects its own statistics on farm murders, but these do not include the killings that take place on small holdings. Adding to the lack of reliability of the numbers is that under reporting probably takes place. According to the Union there have been 4,308 farm attacks and 806 farm murders from 2010 to 2023.
Over this 13-year period, one commercial farmer of the 36,000 in the country had a nearly 12 percent chance of being attacked. That is not a low probability even over this sort of period. And bear in mind that some farmers have faced multiple separate attacks. That is scary, but not necessarily higher than the higher probability of violent attack and violent death of many others in the country.
Now that crime has the public attention and political parties could be judged by what they achieve in this area, there has to be some hope that there can be new political impetus for a big initiative on crime. The decay of urban areas, high unemployment, and the erosion of government services gives minimal hope for improvement in law enforcement. Just wait, high crime, will become the new hot political issue.
Ramaphosa will also have to explain to Trump why he signed the Expropriation Act. Here, Ramaphosa is on the back foot. Fighting crime is a win for the government and the electorate. But scrapping the Expropriation Act is politically very difficult, much as it would improve investor sentiment.
Under discussion
While it has been under discussion for some time, the White House meeting has given rocket fuel to the proposal for changes in empowerment regulations for telecommunications companies. Under the proposal investors in telecommunications ventures in South Africa would be allowed to make “equity equivalent” investments, rather than allow for a 30% empowerment stake.
That would pave the way for Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite-based internet service to operate in this country. It is acutely embarrassing to the ANC that Starlink is available in 18 out of 54 African countries. Kenya changed their requirement that locals have a stake in all foreign telecommunications in the country to attract Starlink.
If the rules do change, other potential investors in other sectors might say we won’t invest if you do not change the empowerment regulations. You did this for Musk, but why not us.
The consequences of Trump for South Africa might yet go a lot further, but there could still be a pushback.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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