South Africa has been a growth laggard for well over a decade, and had it kept up with the average growth-rate of emerging markets since 2010, the economy would be R4.1 trillion larger than is the case now.
This was the analysis of Investec Wealth and Investment strategist, Osagyefo Mazwai, in comments carried on the Daily Investor site.
The emerging market average to which Mazwai referred was growth of some 4.5% per year.
If it had been able to grow at this level, South Africa’s per capita income at purchasing power parity would be over $20 000, as opposed to the current level in the region of $10 000.
However, since 2010, South African GDP growth has averaged 1%, with a population growth rate of 1.6%.
South Africa would need to grow at a rate of between 3% and 5% in real terms a year, assuming a stable population and prevailing inflation, to catch up with global averages.