On 4 November in a US election year the president is usually declared. But this year, even as Joe Biden holds a strong lead, the race remains too close to call. Here is an update on where things stand today.
On 4 November it seemed “most likely” that whoever won two of the three “WIMIPA” Rust Belt states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) would win the presidential election. Biden has been projected the winner of Wisconsin (by 20 535 votes) and Michigan (by 135 605 votes) with both states reporting 99% of all votes counted.
By yesterday’s logic that should make Biden, mathematically, the winner. But new developments undermine yesterday’s assumptions.
Re-Raising Arizona
Trusted outlets like Reuters and the New York Post mistakenly reported that 98% of estimated votes were counted in Arizona, with Biden in the lead, when an estimated 14% of the votes were not counted yet. Here is an explanation from the New York Post of that error.
In addition, Fox News, using a different source of data, projected that Biden was sure to win based on votes already counted. This is important because Fox has a very strong record for election projections, and because it traditionally leans right. In combination, the possibility that Fox would prematurely call Arizona for the Democrat candidate seemed most unlikely.
And finally, the Associated Press, which provides the imbedded response to Google’s searches on US election updates, projected a sure win for Biden in Arizona too.
And yet Fox and the Associated Press may have jumped the gun. As Nate Silver, one of the US’s most respected election experts, notes “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now”.
The reason is simple. With slightly more than 470 000 votes still to be counted and incumbent Donald Trump trailing by less than 70 000 it is possible that Biden could lose in Arizona. When Fox or the Associated Press “calls” an election this is supposed to mean it is a sure thing, which it is not.
Of the thirteen Arizona counties with more than 10% of their votes outstanding, ten are currently heavily in Trump’s favour and favoured him in 2016 too. That means Trump is likely to pick up more votes than Biden in most outstanding counties.
The major exception is Maricopa county, which includes the largest city, Phoenix, which is ten times bigger than the next biggest outstanding county. Trump won Maricopa by 2.8% in 2016, but is currently trailing by 4% to Biden.
Should the outstanding votes continue to favour Biden at a 4% advantage this will overwhelm the rest and Biden will win Arizona, just as had been prematurely projected. But should the outstanding votes lean back to Trump’s 2016 levels in Maricopa (as the latest counts have been) then the incumbent’s reelection prospects nationally may rise from the ashes like the phoenix bird of legend.
It is worth noting that in Arizona the number of voters for Trump and Biden who sent their ballots by post are very close, 46% for Trump and 53% for Biden. This is unlike most of the US.
Gambling in Vegas
Nevada is the next possible surprise state. Trump currently trails Biden by only 7 647 votes in the part of America most famous for gambling.
Again, this is an unusual state for voting by post. Trump has won almost 90% of all “absentee ballots” in Nevada, but with its stricter system that makes up only 1 000 votes out of more than 1.2 million.
Of the ten counties in Nevada with more than 10% of the vote left to count Trump leads in eight, so he is likely to catch up there as they finish tallying votes. But the other two outstanding counties, where Biden leads, are ten times as big.
Clark County, home to Las Vegas, has Biden leading by 8% (16% of the estimated votes outstanding at 12h30 South Africa time). If Biden holds his lead at that level, he will get the jackpot of Nevada.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton won Clark County by 10.7%, so Biden’s lead might even grow as the last votes come in, putting Nevada totally out of Trump’s reach. But nothing there is a sure bet.
Georgia on my mind
The final state that might swing it all is Georgia, where Trump leads by 0.4%, after 98% of votes were counted. With nearly 4.9 million votes counted Trump is ahead by 22 567 (as at 12h30, South Africa time). It is as tight as a shrimp’s shell.
The exact county breakdown of the remaining expected votes (less than 100 000) is not available.
As the classic State song goes, “Georgia, Georgia, no peace I find/ Just an old sweet song keeps Georgia on my mind”. Both candidates will have Georgia on their minds “the whole day through” until the last votes are tallied.
Keystone
Suppose Biden holds Arizona while Trump holds Georgia and North Carolina. Then Biden only needs to keep his lead in Nevada to win. But if Trump turns the River (as poker players say) in Las Vegas then Pennsylvania will be the decider. In that case you will probably have to wait until the end of Friday to know.
Biden supporters continue to have much more reason to celebrate, provisionally. Since the US founding Pennsylvania has been called the “Keystone State”. It may play that role again.