The Financial Times has published analysis of mortality statistics that shows the global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported.
The analysis of mortality statistics showed 122 000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed, considerably higher than the 77 000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.
The newspaper said that if the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201 000 to as high as 318 000.
South Africa’s positive cases rose by 247 to 4 793, and deaths from 87 to 90.
In its special report yesterday, the FT said that, to calculate excess deaths, the newspaper had compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019.
‘The total of 122 000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.
‘In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease.’
The analysis showed that overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.
‘Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.
‘The extra deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms in some. This is especially worrying for many emerging economies, where total excess mortality is orders of magnitude higher than official coronavirus fatalities.’
The FT quoted David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University, as saying: ‘The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is by looking at all cause mortality . . . There are so many questions about the rise we’ve seen in death that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet you feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic.’
In other virus-related news
- US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said America was doing more than any other country to combat the virus in Africa, with a commitment of ‘more than $170m to this fight in Africa’;
- Hospital deaths in Britain rose by 360 to 21 092;
- Italy spelled out plans to ease restrictions from 4 May, having recorded its lowest daily death toll since mid-March;
- New Zealand said it had succeeded in eliminating local transmission, and eased its lockdown at midnight;
- Johns Hopkins University said there were almost 3 million confirmed cases and more than 200 000 deaths globally;
- New York City said it would soon open 64km of streets to pedestrians to give residents more social-distancing space outdoors. With warmer weather approaching, the city said it would barricade some streets to traffic and expand pavements; and
- 99-year-old war veteran Captain Tom Moore’s, who has raised millions for the NHS by walking laps of his garden, is to be honoured with a special Royal Mail postmark on all letters processed at the end of the week to mark his 100th birthday on Thursday. Moore had aimed at raising £1 000. He exceeded his target within 24 hours and has gone on to raise more than £29 million.