One of the major casualties of the Covid-19 lockdown is going to be the effect it has on our tourism and hospitality industry. This was one of the areas of economic activity that many people hoped would create much-needed jobs in this country, although the African National Congress (ANC) has a long history of disliking the tourism industry because it is predominantly ‘white-owned’.
This goes way back to 1996 when the late Peter (kill the farmer, kill the boer) Mokaba was the massively over-promoted Deputy Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. He had suggested levying a tax on departing tourists who he imagined as predominantly white and middle class. What he failed to understand was that, to depart, you first needed to arrive and the prospect of being taxed might not be the best way to attract international tourists.
He also moaned that the tourism industry was 95% white-owned. Quite why that would matter if jobs for all South Africans were being created remains a mystery, but attempting to understand the twisted economic logic of the ANC is an exercise in futility. As we know from Cde Ebrahim Patel, anything that looks or smells like private enterprise must be crushed on the basis that it might be unfair to anyone who can’t be bothered to be enterprising.
Comair have already said that they don’t anticipate flying before October, and one must assume that SAA are also going to remain grounded for the foreseeable future. Those airlines and their various offshoots are the only way of flying around the country if you don’t happen to own your own private jet. International airlines are similarly affected, with both British Airways and Virgin Atlantic announcing that they are withdrawing from Gatwick, the UK’s second-largest airport.
Knock-on effect
Apart from the thousands of jobs that will be lost, both at the airline and at the airport, one must also consider the knock-on effect on the wider economy in that part of Sussex and Surrey. Precisely the same applies all around the world, where previously busy airports now stand empty. Heathrow reported a first quarter after-tax loss of £352million compared with a profit of £102million for the same quarter in 2019. Much of that would have been due to the enormous number of retail outlets in the airport, which have had to be mothballed.
Airline bosses are saying that they only expect airline travel to get back to pre-Covid levels in three years’ time. That’s three years during which the global tourist industry will be largely redundant. If flights were resumed and social distancing were to be enforced, the line to board an Airbus 380 would be over a kilometre long. Not even the largest airports in the world could handle that.
But, even supposing that airlines (those who haven’t gone bust) were up and running by the end of 2020, who would want to fly? The days of budget flights are, I fear, gone for ever. If social distancing is a condition of travel by air, then there will have to be far fewer seats available and that means airfares would have to skyrocket to make a flight viable.
For most of us, squeezing into an affordable airline seat for a short two- or three-hour hop to a holiday destination is worth the temporary discomfort. Even a ten-hour economy class flight is bearable if the price is right. The term ‘jet setter’ was used in the early days of commercial flight to describe those who could afford to fly around the world at whim. I suspect that term may be about to make a comeback.
Bad enough after 9/11
Apart from the cost and scant availability of flights in the future, there are also the security measures to consider. Things were bad enough after the 9/11 attack in 2001. Gone were the elegant knives and forks in First and Business Class and in their place was a plastic knife and fork. Security became a nightmare, with long, snaking lines of people removing shoes, belts and anything likely to set alarms off and shuffling slowly forward with a small plastic bag with toiletries which would almost certainly be confiscated by security if they were deemed potentially dangerous. Post 9/11 all the excitement and anticipation went out of air travel and we all paid to be treated either as refugees or criminals or both.
So imagine what it’s going to be like post Covid. Some European countries have already said that they will be applying 14 days of compulsory quarantine to any foreign visitors who are not nationals. So bang goes your three-week trip to London to watch the changing of the guard if you have to spend the first two weeks locked up in a ‘government facility’.
Other countries may not be quite so stringent but before you board you will have your temperature taken and if it’s out of normal range you will be refused permission to board. On board, you will have to wear a mask at all times, which will make it very difficult to take full advantage of the drinks trolley. On landing you will be tested again and possibly swabbed and, if there is any doubt about your medical condition, you will be isolated, at your expense, and only allowed out when the authorities are happy with you. It is just too ghastly to contemplate and I fully suspect that my newly issued passport will remain in its virgin state for the next ten years.
Doubtful returnees
None of this is good news for a long-haul destination like South Africa. Even our ‘swallows’, who come here from November to May each year from Europe to spend money and boost the local economy, are doubtful returnees. There will be a lot of locked-up fancy holiday homes on secure estates remaining empty for quite some while. The same obviously applies to South Africans with holiday homes scattered around the country and around the world. They have moved from the asset side of the balance sheet to the liability side…still costing money for upkeep, but proving unusable.
Lack of tourism, both international and local, will severely dent the hospitality industry. Those lucky enough to still have jobs probably won’t feel disposed to spend R1 500-a-head on a seven-course tasting menu at one of our upmarket eateries…particularly if there’s a long queue of starving fellow South Africans outside. If you have to observe social distancing at a bar or in a restaurant then what on earth would be the point in going out in the first place? Cinemas, concert halls, theatres and sports arenas will remain no-go areas for months to come. The same will apply to wedding venues and conference centres.
In a normal society, one would look to government for guidance on such matters, but we are far from being a normal society. After all, what hope have we of ever attracting overseas tourists again if we won’t even let them enjoy a glass of our finest wine?
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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