The ANC’s poor election result, combined with high unemployment and negligible economic growth, is forcing the party to look afresh at some of its ideas.
There was no big and bold sign of a re-think to emerge from the post-election ANC national lekgotla in early June. President Cyril Ramaphosa instead seemed keen to reassure the party that it would stick to its plans for transformation and inclusive growth.
But remarks by senior ANC officials since the party’s national lekgotla might be signals of a re-think. Over the weekend Panyaza Lesufi, the ANC Gauteng Premier, warned at the party’s provincial lekgotla that it had better listen and adapt, otherwise it would die. In a speech earlier this month, David Masondo, an ANC Deputy Minister of Finance, rejected calls for black parties to unite. And Deputy President Paul Mashatile said a few weeks ago that the national airline, SAA, should be sold.
A lot could be read into these statements, as they do show a willingness to change on the part of senior ANC cadres from the party’s radical wing. But there is a risk of overthinking on what these statements might really imply for reform.
It is unlikely that these statements were coordinated to get across the idea that there is now a new ANC intent on change. So far these have been the only ANC voices which have hinted at a rethink on important policies.
We would have to see convincing moves to reform empowerment regulations. Changing the labour laws, privatising public enterprises, not using the Expropriation Without Compensation Act and scrapping the National Health Insurance (NHI) project would indicate that big reforms are on the way.
But the remarks of Masondo and Mashatile certainly stand out.
Highest body
Apart from his job at Finance, Masondo also sits on the ANC’s National Executive Committee, the highest body in the party between the national conferences that are held every five years. He is also the Deputy Secretary-General of the SA Communist Party. Masondo is under 50 and clearly a contender for high positions in the ANC.
In a speech at the University of South Africa, he rejected a call for black political parties to unite and form a government, “regardless of what they stand for.”
What matters about Masondo’s remarks is that he was urging a backing away from racial nationalism in our politics. Racial nationalism mixed with Marxist theory has been influential on many ANC cadres as well as the two radical comrade spinoff parties. It is also much of the reason for our race-based policies around empowerment and transformation. But, in no way did he even hint that he was calling for a scrapping of all race-based policy.
Masondo said, “we support the Government of National Unity (GNU) and oppose the so-called government of black unity through black political parties, regardless of what they stand for,” according to News24.
“We should be building working class unity,” which would include the predominantly black trade union movements like COSATU as well as Solidarity, a largely white union.
“Black parties unite, for what? What do they stand for? Does the call for black unity, regardless of what the party stands for, [mean] progressive?”
Radical “black” parties
A number of Communist Party leaders felt that the ANC should have gone into government with the two radical “black” parties rather than the DA.
Another comment by a senior ANC leader also raises questions about what sort of wider reforms the party might be considering. The Deputy President, Paul Mashatile, told the Sunday Times that the government, “is not in the business of owning airlines.” Mashatile said the government should consider selling SAA if there are private players who have the money and expertise to run it at a profit.
The Deputy President is reputedly close in friendship and ideology to the EFF’s Commander in Chief, Julius Malema. So his remarks might be of the order of a Damascene conversion.
If the government should not be in the airline business, what are the other businesses in which it should not be involved?
A few months ago, remarks of the sort made by Masondo and Mashatile might have triggered a furore among the radicals in the ANC.
John Endres, CEO of the Institute of Race Relations, says the combination of the party’s poor election performance, high unemployment and the dismal growth rate has brought about a big rethink in the party.
Rethink
The rethink was also triggered by the dashing of ANC assumptions about its support base, says Endres. The ANC must have thought that Ramaphosa signing the NHI bill a fortnight before the election would boost its support. Instead, according to tracking polls by the Social Research Foundation, ANC support slumped after the signing of the bill.
The ANC wants to keep the aspirant middle class, who view private health insurance as desirable, as a core constituency. Only if the party does not embark on radical schemes will this constituency be happy. And with a relatively few individuals and companies providing the bulk of tax revenue, the ANC must be careful to keep them happy, Endres says.
A key indicator of whether the ANC is serious about reform will be if it is prepared to backtrack on the NHI project. Organised business has refused to sign the Second Presidential Health Compact because it endorses the NHI, which threatens to give the government absolute control of the provision of healthcare.
If it is serious about reform, the ANC will want to retain its pride and that means it will not do about-turns in public. Besides, if the ANC did announce big reforms, there would be pushback from the comrades and a possible split in the party.
Reform will have to be by stealth. So ANC leaders will declare that there have been no policy changes, yet there might be a series of small changes, sometimes with big consequences.
Benign scenario
Reform by stealth could mean the Department of Health might be renamed as the Department of National Health Insurance. Success could then be declared in the scheme’s implementation. Under a benign scenario, patients would still be able to choose their own doctors, take out medical insurance and the state would enter into contracts with the private sector to run some state hospitals.
Reform by stealth might also involve changes by Ministers in regulations rather than in laws. The Mining Charter, which sets empowerment participation in mining ventures, could be amended by the minister to encourage investment in the sector. Where laws need to be changed, there is the possibility of minor amendments, like raising the number of employees, which could allow all but the very largest companies to be excluded from meeting some legal requirements. That could be politically sold as the minor changes that are needed to encourage investment and inclusive growth.
Certain reforms cannot be done by stealth. Privatisation is one such reform. If Mashatile, who is thought to be on the left of the party, can carry the comrades with him and show the benefits of privatisation, it just might be politically possible.
[Image: Jessica Kwok from Pixabay]
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR
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