It was a master stroke by Democratic party leaders to dump octogenarian Joe Biden, replacing him with Kamala Harris as candidate for president.
It was a game changer that lifted the shroud that had descended over the party faithful, following − for them − the disastrous 27 June Biden/Trump debate.
This is a presidential campaign like no other. Dramatic events have occurred. There was the 13 July near-assassination of Donald Trump and then a second threat to his life two months later.
Since June there have been three discernible shifts in the public mood. First, following the Biden-Trump debate, people concluded that the 81-year-old Biden was so slow and infirm, he was bound to lose, and Donald Trump would again be president.
A second shift occurred after the mid-August Democratic national convention. Kamala Harris, lightly regarded amid doubts that she might not be up to the job, did surprisingly well. Over four nights in an overflowing Chicago arena there was a massive outpouring of enthusiasm for the Vice-President. The slogan “we’re not going back” to the chaos and reversals of a second Trump presidency resounded from the rafters. Just perhaps, the multitude concluded, Harris could win. Kamala-euphoria flowed out from Chicago as eyes focused on a showdown Harris-Trump debate on 10 September.
Exceeded expectations
Watched by 67 million viewers, this was Harris’s opportunity to introduce herself to the American public. She did so and exceeded expectations in sparring with Trump. Suddenly it appeared that there was a real contest for the presidency.
We are now in a third phase, a kind of faux-normality, with pundits pontificating and voters watching the polls, which suggest a close race, with Harris marginally ahead.
When it’s over, I suspect analysts will look back on 2024 and conclude that both candidates were weak by historical standards. Trump in his third presidential run is a skilled entertainer but his wavering and unpredictability on policy matters confuses even some of his most loyal followers. Is there evidence that the public has tired of his exaggerations and name calling? We’ll soon find out.
As for Harris, she avoids meeting the press, prefers a teleprompter to unscripted remarks, and recoils from efforts to reconcile previously contradictory positions on matters such as illegal immigration, penalties for shoplifters, and taxes on the middle class.
Abortion rights and illegal immigration feature prominently in campaign speeches. Relatively little is being said on foreign policy, although Trump’s promise to put high tariffs on imports from China gets considerable play.
Threat to democracy
Each candidate accuses the other of being a threat to democracy. Harris points to Trump’s failure to acknowledge Biden’s victory in 2020, as well as his role in the riot and invasion of the Capitol in January 2021. From the opposite side, Trump accuses Harris of wanting to restrict free speech through government limitations on social media.
Both candidates accuse the news media of bias, and indeed public trust in the media is at historic lows. Objective reporting is in short supply, as media have steadily become more partisan. Reflecting a polarised country, Americans tend to seek out news that confirms what they already believe.
Some months ago, long-time successful investor Lee Cooperman lamented the state of political discourse in the United States:
“In 1776, the population of the United States was two and a half million people. A million were women that didn’t have the right to vote and 250,000 were slaves that didn’t have the right to vote. So, the voting population was 1,250,000. Those 1,250,000 people found Jefferson, Washington, Madison, Hamilton, et cetera. We now have 330 million people in the country. We found Biden and Trump. I don’t have to say anything else.”
With Harris having replaced Biden, would Cooperman amend his statement? I suspect not.
Stakes are high
All agree the stakes are high. South African-born Elon Musk, joining a Donald Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on 5 October, said this was the most important election in our lifetime.
Finally, a further word of caution. The election may be only a few weeks away, but anything can still happen. Events, yet unknown, could affect the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.
The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR.
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